Author Archives: Johannes.Siebert

Veröffentlichung Siebert, Johannes U.; Rüdiger von Nitzsch. “Das Jobauswahlproblem für Berufseinsteiger: Eine entscheidungstheoretische Anwendung – Teil 1: Problemstrukturierung in Ziele, Alternativen und Unsicherheiten“, Wissenschaftliche Beiträge, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliches Studium, Oktober 2018, 47(10), 4-11 Dieser Beitrag beschreibt eine praxisnahe Anwendung der Entscheidungstheorie in zwei Teilen. In diesem ersten Teil wird gezeigt, wie wichtig eine gute Strukturierung der Entscheidungssituation in Ziele, Alternativen und Unsicherheiten ist und wie man in diesem Schritt unter Zuhilfenahme eines Entscheidungsanalysten am besten vorgeht. Erst in einem hierauf aufbauenden zweiten Teil wird dann vorgestellt werden, wie mit einer Quantifizierung der notwendigen Parameter die beste Handlungsalternative identifiziert werden kann.

Veröffentlichung Siebert, Johannes U.; Keeney, Ralph. „Entscheidungen: Probleme oder Chancen? Wie Sie proaktiv unangenehme Entscheidungssituationen vermeiden können”, Wissenschaftliche Beiträge, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliches Studium, Juni 2020, 49 (6), 4-9 Entscheidungssituationen werden häufig als Probleme wahrgenommen, die es zu lösen gilt. Allerdings sind Entscheidungen die einzige Möglichkeit, Einfluss auf das zu nehmen, was wichtig ist. Dieser Beitrag grenzt Entscheidungsprobleme und Entscheidungschancen ab und zeigt auf, wie durch proaktives Entscheiden nicht nur die Wahrscheinlichkeit, mit Problemen konfrontiert zu werden, reduziert werden kann, sondern auch systematisch attraktive Entscheidungschancen identifiziert werden können.

Veröffentlichung Siebert, Johannes U.; Kunz, Reinhard „Entwicklung einer Balanced Scorecard mit Value-focused Thinking am Beispiel eines mittelgroßen Medienunternehmens“. Controlling:Zeitschrift für erfolgsorientierte Unternehmenssteuerung, March 2016, 210-215. DOI:  10.15358/0935-0381-2016-3-209 Dieser Beitrag beschreibt eine innovative Vorgehensweise zur Erstellung einer differenzierten Balanced Scorecard mit Hilfe von Instrumenten und Methoden des Value-focused Thinking und illustriert diese Vorgehensweise anhand eines mittelgroßen Medienunternehmens.

he quality of alternatives is crucial for making good decisions. This research, based on five empirical studies of important personally relevant decisions, examines the ability of decision makers to create alternatives for their important decisions and the effectiveness of different stimuli for improving this ability. For decisions for which the full set of potentially desirable alternatives is not readily apparent, our first study indicates that decision makers identify less than half of their alternatives and that the average quality of the overlooked alternatives is the same as those identified.

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Decision sciences are in general agreement on the theoretical relevance of decision training. From an empirical standpoint, however, only a few studies test its effectiveness or practical usefulness, and even less address the impact of decision training on the structuring of problems systematically. Yet that task is widely considered to be the most crucial in decision-making processes, and current research suggests that effectively structuring problems and generating alternatives—as epitomized by the concept of proactive decision making—increases satisfaction with the decision as well as life satisfaction more generally.

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Proactive decision making, a concept recently introduced to behavioural operational research and decision analysis, addresses effective decision making during its phase of generating alternatives. It is measured on a scale comprising six dimensions grouped into two categories: proactive personality traits and proactive cognitive skills. Personality traits are grounded on such theoretical constructs as a proactive attitude and proactive behaviour; cognitive skills reflect value-focused thinking and decision quality. These traits and skills have been used to explain decision satisfaction, although their antecedents and other consequences have not yet been the subject of rigorous hypotheses and testing. This paper embeds proactive decision making within a model of three possible consequences. We consider—and empirically test—decision satisfaction, general self-efficacy, and life satisfaction by conducting three studies with 1,300 participants.

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On the basis of an extensive interdisciplinary literature review proactive decision-making (PDM) is conceptualised as a multidimensional concept. We conduct five studies with over 4,000 participants from various countries for developing and validating a theoretically consistent and psychometrically sound scale of PDM. The PDM concept is developed and appropriate items are derived from literature. Six dimensions are conceptualised: the four roactive cognitive skills ‘systematic identification of objectives’, ‘systematic search for information’, ‘systematic identification of alternatives’, and ‘using a ‘decision radar’’, and the two proactive personality traits ‘showing nitiative’ and ‘striving for improvement’.

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Dieser Beitrag beleuchtet, welche betriebswirtschaftlichen Potenziale Industrie 4.0 hat, wie das Zusammenspiel mit Big Data aussieht und welche Implikationen sich daraus für Unternehmen im Allgemeinen und das Controlling im Speziellen ergeben.

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To develop effective counterterrorism strategies, it is important to understand the capabilities and objectives of terrorist groups. Much of the understanding of these groups comes from intelligence collection and analysis of their capabilities. In contrast, the objectives of terrorists are less well understood. In this article, we describe a decision analysis methodology to identify and structure the objectives of terrorists based on the statements and writings of their leaders. This methodology was applied in three case studies, resulting in the three objectives hierarchies of al-Qaeda, Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), and Hezbollah.

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Objectives are fundamental to strategic management. However, while research exists on objectives of media companies, we know little about the relationships between them. In order to advance research in this field, we used value-focused thinking to investigate the objectives of a media company and the balanced scorecard as a framework to demonstrate their relationships. In interviews with 23 managers and employees of a German medium-sized local newspaper company, we found 698 distinct objectives and 1009 relationships. By concentrating on the most important objectives, we derived a balanced scorecard with 33 objectives and 65 relationships organised in seven perspectives. The results were then validated in a second case study on a Czech national media group.

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