Research

How goals, data, and analysis become better decisions

I study how people and organisations reach better decisions under uncertainty and conflicting objectives — from operational to strategic questions. Methodologically, I combine decision analysis, behavioural operational research, and data science.

Full list of publications → ORCID ↗ Google Scholar ↗

Research programme

Five focus areas

A single thread runs through my work: systematically improving the quality of decisions — across methods, behaviour, and data.

Focus area 01

Decision Analysis & Value-Focused Thinking

Clarifying and structuring objectives and translating them into better alternatives. How do values and objectives give rise to decisions one can justify and stand behind?

Focus area 02

Behavioural decision research

How people actually decide — and how proactive, competent decision-making can be fostered. Empirically grounded, at the interface of description and prescription (Behavioural Operational Research).

Focus area 03

Multi-criteria decision support & value-based management

Complex conflicts of objectives and criteria across levels — from operational decisions to strategic management: portfolio and resource allocation, Balanced Scorecard, objectives systems.

Focus area 04

Data Science & Artificial Intelligence in decision processes

How data-driven analyses, forecasts, and AI-generated information can be embedded so that they yield transparent and accountable decisions.

Focus area 05 — Ongoing research

Behaviourally grounded operations and management decisions

A growing part of my work transfers decision-analytic and behavioural methods to operations, supply-chain, and enterprise-wide management questions. Several projects are currently in preparation and under review.

Supply chains & last-mile logisticsHow the goals and conditions of individual actors translate into flexible, behaviour-based delivery and routing decisions.

Operations & financial managementHow Value-Focused Thinking complements value-based management and turns functional goal conflicts into deliberate, enterprise-wide value decisions.

Biases in evaluationSystematic biases in weighting and selection — e.g. in procurement and supplier decisions — and methods that reduce their impact.

Selected publications

Selected work

A selection of peer-reviewed journal articles, organised by the five focus areas (focus area 05 covers ongoing work without completed publications). The full list is available via ORCID and Google Scholar.

Decision Analysis & Value-Focused Thinking

Creating More and Better Alternatives for Decisions Using Objectives

Siebert, J. U.; Keeney, R. L. · Operations Research 63(5), 2015

A+DOI ↗

Fifty Years of Decision Analysis in Operational Research: A Review

Borgonovo, E.; Jose, V. R. R.; Knowlton, M.; Shachter, R.; Siebert, J. U.; Ulu, C. · European Journal of Operational Research 329(2), 2026

ADOI ↗

Identifying and Structuring the Objectives of the “Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant” (ISIL) and Its Followers

Siebert, J. U.; von Winterfeldt, D.; John, R. S. · Decision Analysis 13(1), 2016

BDOI ↗

Comparative Analysis of Terrorists’ Objectives Hierarchies

Siebert, J. U.; von Winterfeldt, D. · Decision Analysis 17(2), 2020

BDOI ↗

Behavioural decision research

Effects of decision training on individuals’ decision-making proactivity

Siebert, J. U.; Kunz, R. E.; Rolf, P. · European Journal of Operational Research 294(1), 2021

ADOI ↗

Effects of Proactive Decision Making on Life Satisfaction

Siebert, J. U.; Kunz, R. E.; Rolf, P. · European Journal of Operational Research 280(3), 2020

ADOI ↗

Developing and Validating the Multidimensional Proactive Decision-Making Scale

Siebert, J. U.; Kunz, R. E. · European Journal of Operational Research 249(3), 2016

ADOI ↗

Deciding for a secure tomorrow: Proactive decision-making and retirement financial planning behavior

Siebert, J.; Siebert, J. U.; Blösl, F. · European Journal of Operational Research 331(3), 2026

ADOI ↗

Multi-criteria decision support & value-based management

Supporting Innovation in Early-Stage Pharmaceutical Development Decisions

Methling, F.; Borden, S. A.; Veeraraghavan, D.; Sommer, I.; Siebert, J. U.; von Nitzsch, R.; Seidler, M. · Decision Analysis 19(4), 2022

BDOI ↗

Combining Value-Focused Thinking and Balanced Scorecard to Improve Decision-Making in Strategic Management

Kunz, R. E.; Siebert, J. U.; Mütterlein, J. · Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis 23(5–6), 2016

BDOI ↗

Defining and Aligning Supply Chain Objectives Before, During, and After the COVID-19 Pandemic

Siebert, J. U.; Brandenburg, M.; Siebert, J. · IEEE Engineering Management Review 48(4), 2020

BDOI ↗

Data Science & Artificial Intelligence in decision processes

ChatGPT vs. Experts: Can GenAI Develop High-Quality Organizational and Policy Objectives?

Simon, J.; Siebert, J. U. · Decision Analysis, Articles in Advance, 2025

BDOI ↗

View the full list of publications →

Applied research

Research on real-world decisions

Selected collaborations in which decision-analytic methods were applied to real investment, portfolio, and management decisions.

Bayer AGPharmaceutical development

A prioritisation model for the early-stage development pipeline, enabling holistic portfolio management. Published in Decision Analysis (2022) →

Energie Baden-WürttembergStrategic management

Development of a comprehensive strategic objectives network as a basis for identifying sustainable strategic measures; advising the executive board.

Nordbayerischer KurierMedia company · strategic management

Development of a media-specific Balanced Scorecard based on Value-Focused Thinking for the strategic management of a regional media company.

California Department of TransportationInfrastructure & resources

Methodological advising on structuring and evaluating infrastructure and resource-allocation decisions.

Academic engagement

In the research community

Editorial Boards

European Journal of Operational Research · Decision Analysis (INFORMS) · Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

Committees

Executive Committee, International Society on MCDM · Decision Analysis Society (INFORMS)

Reviewing

incl. Management Science · Operations Research · European Journal of Operational Research · Omega