RESEARCH
How objectives, data, and analysis lead to better decisions
I study how people and organizations reach better decisions under uncertainty and conflicting objectives — from operational questions to strategic ones. Methodologically, I combine decision analysis, behavioral operational research, and data science.
RESEARCH PROGRAMME
Five focus areas
A single thread runs through my work: systematically improving the quality of decisions – across methods, behaviour, and data.
FOCUS AREA 01
Decision Analysis & Value-Focused Thinking
Clarifying and structuring objectives and translating them into better alternatives. How can values and objectives lead to decisions that can be justified and responsibly defended?
FOCUS AREA 02
Behavioural Decision Research
How people actually decide – and how proactive and competent decision-making can be fostered. Empirically grounded, at the interface of description and prescription (Behavioural Operational Research).
FOCUS AREA 03
Multi-Criteria Decision Support & Value-Based Management
Complex conflicts between objectives and criteria across levels – from operational decisions to strategic management: portfolio and resource allocation, Balanced Scorecard, and systems of objectives.
FOCUS AREA 04
Data Science & Artificial Intelligence in Decision Processes
How data-driven analyses, forecasts, and AI-generated information can be embedded in decision processes so that they support transparent and accountable decisions.
FOCUS AREA 05 · ONGOING RESEARCH
Behaviourally Grounded Operations and Management Decisions
A growing part of my research applies decision-analytic and behavioural methods to operations, supply chains, and enterprise-wide management questions. Several projects are currently in preparation or under review.
Supply Chains & Last-Mile Logistics
How the objectives and constraints of individual actors can be translated into flexible, behaviourally informed delivery and routing decisions.
Operations & Financial Management
How Value-Focused Thinking complements value-based management and turns functional objective conflicts into deliberate, enterprise-wide value decisions.
Biases in Evaluation
Systematic biases in weighting and selection – for example in procurement and supplier decisions – and methods that reduce their impact.
SELECTED PUBLICATIONS
Selected Work
A selection of peer-reviewed journal articles, organised by my research focus areas. The A+, A and B ratings correspond to the VHB Publication Media Rating 2024. The full list of publications is available on the Publications page, ORCID, and Google Scholar.
Decision Analysis & Value-Focused Thinking
Creating More and Better Alternatives for Decisions Using Objectives
Siebert, J. U.; Keeney, R. L. · Operations Research 63(5), 2015
Fifty Years of Decision Analysis in Operational Research: A Review
Borgonovo, E.; Jose, V. R. R.; Knowlton, M.; Shachter, R.; Siebert, J. U.; Ulu, C. · European Journal of Operational Research 329(2), 2026
Identifying and Structuring the Objectives of the “Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant” (ISIL) and Its Followers
Siebert, J. U.; von Winterfeldt, D.; John, R. S. · Decision Analysis 13(1), 2016
Comparative Analysis of Terrorists’ Objectives Hierarchies
Siebert, J. U.; von Winterfeldt, D. · Decision Analysis 17(2), 2020
Behavioural Decision Research
Effects of decision training on individuals’ decision-making proactivity
Siebert, J. U.; Kunz, R. E.; Rolf, P. · European Journal of Operational Research 294(1), 2021
Effects of Proactive Decision Making on Life Satisfaction
Siebert, J. U.; Kunz, R. E.; Rolf, P. · European Journal of Operational Research 280(3), 2020
Developing and Validating the Multidimensional Proactive Decision-Making Scale
Siebert, J. U.; Kunz, R. E. · European Journal of Operational Research 249(3), 2016
Deciding for a secure tomorrow: Proactive decision-making and retirement financial planning behavior
Siebert, J.; Siebert, J. U.; Blösl, F. · European Journal of Operational Research 331(3), 2026
Multi-Criteria Decision Support & Value-Based Management
Supporting Innovation in Early-Stage Pharmaceutical Development Decisions
Methling, F.; Borden, S. A.; Veeraraghavan, D.; Sommer, I.; Siebert, J. U.; von Nitzsch, R.; Seidler, M. · Decision Analysis 19(4), 2022
Combining Value-Focused Thinking and Balanced Scorecard to Improve Decision-Making in Strategic Management
Kunz, R. E.; Siebert, J. U.; Mütterlein, J. · Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis 23(5–6), 2016
Defining and Aligning Supply Chain Objectives Before, During, and After the COVID-19 Pandemic
Siebert, J. U.; Brandenburg, M.; Siebert, J. · IEEE Engineering Management Review 48(4), 2020
Data Science & Artificial Intelligence in Decision Processes
ChatGPT vs. Experts: Can GenAI Develop High-Quality Organizational and Policy Objectives?
Simon, J.; Siebert, J. U. · Decision Analysis, Articles in Advance, 2025
APPLIED RESEARCH
Research on Real-World Decisions
Selected collaborations in which decision-analytic methods were applied to real-world investment, portfolio, and management decisions.
Bayer AG
Pharmaceutical Development
A prioritisation model for the early-stage development pipeline, enabling holistic portfolio management. Published in Decision Analysis (2022) →
Energie Baden-Württemberg
Strategic Management
Development of a comprehensive system of strategic objectives as a basis for identifying sustainable strategic measures; advising the Executive Board.
Nordbayerischer Kurier
Media Company · Strategic Management
Development of a media-specific Balanced Scorecard based on Value-Focused Thinking for the strategic management of a regional media company. Published in Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (2016) →
California Department of Transportation
Infrastructure & Resources
Methodological advice on structuring and evaluating infrastructure and resource decisions.
ACADEMIC ENGAGEMENT
In the Research Community
Editorial Boards
European Journal of Operational Research · Decision Analysis (INFORMS) · Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis
Boards and Committees
Executive Committee, International Society on MCDM · Decision Analysis Society (INFORMS)
Reviewing
Management Science · Operations Research · European Journal of Operational Research · Omega