Johannes Siebert

Category: Research

  • Combining Value‐Focused Thinking and Balanced Scorecard to Improve Decision‐Making in Strategic Management

    Combining Value‐Focused Thinking and Balanced Scorecard to Improve Decision‐Making in Strategic Management

    Zielorientierung ist der Schlüssel zum strategischen Management. In diesem Bereich ist die Balanced Scorecard eines der am häufigsten verwendeten Managementinstrumente. Sie strukturiert die Hauptziele eines Unternehmens aus verschiedenen Blickwinkeln auf der Grundlage der Unternehmensstrategie und verwendet Leistungsindikatoren, um die Erreichung der Ziele und der Strategie zu messen. Die Methode, mit der sie erstellt wurde, ist jedoch theoretisch nicht fundiert. Value-focused Thinking ist eine Entscheidungsphilosophie, die perfekt zur Erstellung der Balanced Scorecard passt. Sie stellt Methoden und Techniken zur Identifizierung und Strukturierung von Zielen zur Verfügung, die geeignet sind, eine Scorecard systematisch aus einem Mittel-Weg-Netz abzuleiten. Allerdings ist ein solches Mittel-Weg-Netz oft zu komplex für den dauerhaften Einsatz im strategischen Management. Durch die Anpassung der Struktur des Netzes an das Layout der Balanced Scorecard dient die fundierte und übersichtliche Menge der abgeleiteten Ziele und ihrer Messgrößen als sinnvolle Grundlage für die Anwendung von Methoden der multikriteriellen Entscheidungsfindung in einer Organisation.


    Ziel dieser Arbeit war es, ein Verfahren zu skizzieren, das die Balanced Scorecard und das Value-focused Thinking zusammenführt, indem es die Stärken der beiden Konzepte bewahrt und ihre Schwächen eliminiert. Es wurde ein sechsstufiger Prozess theoretisch entwickelt und in einer Fallstudie empirisch angewandt. Dieser Prozess umfasste (1) die Identifizierung von Zielen; (2) die Strukturierung von Zielen; (3) die Charakterisierung von Zielclustern; (4) die Formulierung von Mission, Vision und Strategie; (5) die Gestaltung der Scorecard; und (6) die Überwachung und Anpassung an Veränderungen. Auf der Grundlage dieses Ansatzes wurde eine Management-Scorecard erstellt, die die Strategieentwicklung und -umsetzung ermöglicht, ein klares und umfassendes Mittel-Zweck-Netz darstellt und die wichtigsten Ziele eines Unternehmens und ihre Beziehungen durch Perspektiven visualisiert, die grob an die Balanced Scorecard angelehnt sind. Es dient als Grundlage für die Forschung zur Verallgemeinerung und zum Vergleich von Erkenntnissen über Ziele von Organisationen. Unser Vorgehen zeigt, wie wissenschaftliche Methoden wie Value-focused Thinking den Instrumenten der Praktiker wie der Balanced Scorecard zugute kommen können und wie Management-Tools die wissenschaftlichen Methoden ebenfalls verbessern können.

    Kunz, Reinhard; Siebert, Johannes U.; Mütterlein. “Combining Value-Focused Thinking and Balanced Scorecard to Improve Decision-Making in Strategic Management”, Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, September-December, 2016, 225-241DOI: 10.1002/mcda.1572

  • Designing a Media-Specific Balanced Scorecard by Applying Value-Focused Thinking

    Designing a Media-Specific Balanced Scorecard by Applying Value-Focused Thinking

    Dr. Johannes Siebert, Universität Bayreuth

    Publications

    Siebert, Johannes U.; Kunz, Reinhard „Entwicklung einer Balanced Scorecard mit Value-focused Thinking am Beispiel eines mittelgroßen Medienunternehmens“. Controlling: Zeitschrift für erfolgsorientierte Unternehmenssteuerung, March 2016, 210-215. DOI:  10.15358/0935-0381-2016-3-209

    Kunz, Reinhard; Siebert, Johannes; Mütterlein. “Combining Value-Focused Thinking and Balanced Scorecard to Improve Decision-Making in Strategic Management”, Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, September-December, 2016, 225-241 DOI: 10.1002/mcda.1572

    Kunz, Reinhard; Siebert, Johannes; Mütterlein, Joschka. „A Media-Specific Balanced Scorecard Based on Value-Focused Thinking“, Journal of Media Business Studies, 13(4), 2016, 257-275. http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/16522354.2016.1220114

    The Balanced Scorecard (Kaplan and Norton 1992) is one of the five management tools used most often and has been implemented by nearly 40 percent of the companies (Rigby and Bilodeau 2013). Yet, there is no theoretically sound approach for developing a balanced scorecard. Value-focused thinking is a decision-making philosophy that fits perfectly to Balanced Scorecard creation. It provides methods and techniques for the identification and structuring of objectives that are suitable to systematically derive a scorecard from a means-ends network. However, such a means-ends network is often too complex for enduring use in strategic management. By adapting the network’s structure to the Balanced Scorecard’s layout, the profound and clear set of derived objectives and their measures provide a reasonable basis for applying methods of multi-criteria decision-making in an organization. In a case study, we develop a media-specific Balanced Scorecard to provide media decision-makers with a model that takes characteristics of media management into account and that helps to manage their company successfully. Using a scientifically sound approach that is based on value-focused thinking (Keeney, 1992), we interview the publisher, the CEO, nine management representatives, and ten key employees of a German medium-sized local newspaper company. Overall, 698 distinct objectives and 1,009 relationships are identified. By concentrating on the most important objectives, we derive a Balanced Scorecard with 33 objectives and 65 relationships, which are organized in seven perspectives. Because of its innovativeness, this project was runner-up in the final of the Practice Awards der Decision Analysis Society (INFORMS).

  • Developing and Validating the Multidimensional Proactive Decision-Making Scale

    Developing and Validating the Multidimensional Proactive Decision-Making Scale

    Dr. Johannes Siebert, Universität Bayreuth

    Veröffentlichung

    Siebert, Johannes U.; Kunz, Reinhard. “Developing and Validating the Multidimensional Proactive Decision-Making Scale”. Special Issue „Behavioral Operations Research“ in European Journal of Operational Research, 249(3) 2016, 864-877.dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2015.06.066

    On the basis of an extensive interdisciplinary literature review proactive decision-making (PDM) is conceptualised as a multidimensional concept. We conduct five studies with over 4,000 participants from various countries for developing and validating a theoretically consistent and psychometrically sound scale of PDM.

    The PDM concept is developed and appropriate items are derived from literature. Six dimensions are conceptualised: the four proactive cognitive skills ‘systematic identification of objectives’, ‘systematic search for information’, ‘systematic identification of alternatives’, and ‘using a ‘decision radar’’, and the two proactive personality traits ‘showing initiative’ and ‘striving for improvement’. Using principal component factor analysis and subsequent item analysis as well as confirmatory factor analysis, six conceptually distinct dimensional factors are identified and tested acceptably reliable and valid.

    Our results are remarkably similar for individuals who are decision-makers, decision analysts, both or none of both with different levels of experience. There is strong evidence that individuals with high scores in a PDM factor, e.g. proactive cognitive skills or personality traits, show a significantly higher decision satisfaction. Thus, the PDM scale can be used in future research to analyse other concepts. Furthermore, the scale can be applied, e.g. by staff teams to work on OR problems effectively or to inform a decision analyst about the decision behaviour in an organisation.

  • Identifying and Structuring the Objectives of the Islamic State of Iraq and The Levant (Isil) and its Followers

    Identifying and Structuring the Objectives of the Islamic State of Iraq and The Levant (Isil) and its Followers

    Dr. Johannes Siebert, Universität Bayreuth

    Veröffentlichung

    Siebert, Johannes U.; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; John, Richard. “Identifying and Structuring the Objectives of the “Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant” (ISIL) and its Followers.” Decision Analysis (INFORMS), 2016, 13(1), 26-50, dx.doi.org/10.1287/deca.2015.0324

    This study addressed three questions: 1. What are the objectives of the leaders of ISIL? 2. What are the objectives of the followers of ISIL? 3. How are the two sets of objectives related? To answer these questions we analyzed the transcripts of interviews and presentations of 59 subject matter experts (SMEs) and conducted a separate analysis of speeches of ISIL leaders and selected Internet sources. In both efforts we identified and structured the strategic, fundamental, and means objectives of ISIL and its followers.

    The results indicate that ISIL’s leaders pursue four strategic objectives: Establish a Caliphate in Iraq and the Levant, Control and Govern the Caliphate, Expand Islam and Sharia Law Worldwide, and Recreate the Power and Glory of (Sunni) Islam. The followers’ objectives can be partitioned into three strategic objectives: Humanitarian Fulfillment, Religious Fulfillment and Personal Fulfillment.

    The objectives identified from the SME interviews were similar to those identified from ISIL leaders’ statements and the Internet. However, the Internet search revealed many more personal objectives of ISIL followers. The results further indicate that ISIL’s leadership objectives are closely aligned with those of its followers. There also is a sharp contrast between the objectives of ISIL and those of Al Qaeda, particularly ISIL’s emphasis on occupying and controlling territories in Iraq and Syria vs. Al Qaeda’s focus on worldwide jihad.

  • Creating More and Better Alternatives for Decisions Using Objectives

    Creating More and Better Alternatives for Decisions Using Objectives

    Dr. Johannes Siebert, Universität Bayreuth

    Veröffentlichung

    Siebert, Johannes U.; Keeney, Ralph L. “Creating More and Better Alternatives for Decisions Using Objectives”. Operations Research, September/October 2015, 63(5), 1144-1158. dx.doi.org/10.1287/opre.2015.1411

    The quality of alternatives is crucial for making good decisions. This research, based on five empirical studies of important personally relevant decisions, examines the ability of decision makers to create alternatives for their important decisions and the effectiveness of different stimuli for improving this ability. For decisions for which the full set of potentially desirable alternatives is not readily apparent, our first study indicates that decision makers identify less than half of their alternatives and that the average quality of the overlooked alternatives is the same as those identified. Four other studies provide insight about how to use objectives to stimulate the alternative-creation process of decision makers and confirm with high significance that such use enhances both the number and quality of created alternatives. Using results of the studies, practical guidelines to create alternatives for important decisions are presented.

  • Identifying and structuring strategic objectives: a case study of a major energy utility

    Identifying and structuring strategic objectives: a case study of a major energy utility

    Identifying and structuring strategic objectives: a case study of a major energy utility

    Before a company can develop good strategic alternatives, it has to be clear about what it actually wants to achieve. After Germany’s nuclear phase-out, Ralph Keeney and I worked this out for a major European energy utility: all of the company’s strategic objectives, condensed onto a single page.

    Client: major European energy utility (anonymised)
    Period: from early 2013
    Method: Value-Focused Thinking
    Participants: all members of the executive board, the chair of the supervisory board, around a dozen managers in key positions
    Outcome: objectives network with three main areas, developed from around 450 identified objectives

    Background

    After the Fukushima nuclear disaster in March 2011, German energy policy underwent a paradigm shift: the government led by Angela Merkel decided at short notice to phase out nuclear power. The major utilities operating nuclear plants were caught unprepared, and the economic consequences were substantial. The company we worked with estimated its long-term profit losses at around EUR 1 billion per year.

    The pressure to develop high-quality strategic alternatives was correspondingly high. But that first requires the company’s strategic objectives to be identified and structured systematically.

    Approach

    I took on this task in early 2013 together with Ralph Keeney, professor emeritus at Duke University and originator of Value-Focused Thinking. We conducted individual interviews with every member of the executive board, the chair of the supervisory board and around a dozen managers in key positions, who together covered all relevant business units. We also systematically analysed publicly available documents and internal planning documents for potential objectives.

    This produced an initial set of around 450 objectives. We categorised them, eliminated redundancies, organised the remaining objectives into a network and visualised it in a single clear diagram.

    Outcome: an objectives network with three areas

    Laying the foundations for future success. This area contains objectives on good leadership, on building and developing a highly qualified workforce, and on consistently making good decisions.

    Running the business smartly and with an eye on the future. Here it became clear that two different objective systems coexisted within the company. In the traditional, regulated business, “increase efficiency” and “minimise costs” were central. In the new, unregulated fields such as renewable energy, the focus was on “develop new products”, “enter new markets” and “win new customers”.

    Not just surviving but thriving in an uncertain market. The core question is what value the company aims to create for its stakeholders: for customers, a secure and reliable energy supply at reasonable prices; for shareholders, an appropriate and stable dividend; for the region, strong local engagement; and for employees, secure jobs on fair terms that they enjoy doing.

    The key insight

    The company was operating in two business areas with fundamentally different objectives. In the regulated area, “operate effectively and efficiently” was central; in the unregulated area, “create and market new products and processes”. Behind these lie different management philosophies. Among other things, this explained why employees who had spent many years in the traditional business often struggled in the new one.

    When we presented the results to the executive board, the CEO, then 100 days in office, said he was impressed that everything that mattered to the company could be condensed onto one page. The clear distinction between the regulated and unregulated areas, he said, had been the missing piece he needed to communicate his vision for the company clearly to his staff.

    What carries over

    This approach suits organisations facing a strategic reorientation: when their environment changes fundamentally, new leadership takes over, or established and new businesses have to work under one roof. An explicit objectives network makes visible what really matters, uncovers conflicting objective systems and lays the groundwork for developing and evaluating better alternatives.

    Originally published in April 2015, updated in September 2026.