Category: Research

  • Improving decision making competence of adolescents

    Improving decision making competence of adolescents

    The first decision many young people make is “what do I do after school?” For the most part, different options are presented at best. Often, young people then choose one of the obvious alternatives or alternatives suggested by others without thinking more deeply about what they personally actually want and what their objectives are. For example, you often hear young people say, “My mother is a doctor, so I’m studying medicine,” or “My father is an entrepreneur. I’m studying business,” or even “My parents didn’t study. I should definitely not make the same mistake.” In principle, these decisions may seem “reasonable” from an objective point of view; in individual cases, however, it is urgently necessary to consider each individual’s interests, wishes, and prerequisites.

    Before choosing a field of study, everyone should ask themselves the central question of whether training or studying is a better fit for a young person’s objectives and desires. Today, however, this is often left entirely out of the equation. As a result, and due to poor preliminary considerations when making career decisions, 28 percent of all bachelor’s students dropped out of their studies in 2015, and 25 percent of training contracts were terminated prematurely. In addition to economic consequences such as increased training costs or a shortage of skilled workers, there are also sometimes significant individual consequences, as dropping out of a training program is often seen as a severe failure.

    In a large research project in northern Bavaria, we are investigating how young people can best be trained in decision-making skills so that they are well equipped to make better and more proactive decisions that will have a significant impact on their lives. (www.KLUGentscheiden.de). In addition, I am working closely with the Alliance for Decision Education to promote decision education worldwide.

  • Defining and Aligning Supply Chain Objectives Before, During, and After the COVID-19 Pandemic 3

    Defining and Aligning Supply Chain Objectives Before, During, and After the COVID-19 Pandemic 3

    In order to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic, many companies face numerous strategic decisions of utmost importance for their future. Being aware of one‘s objectives is a prerequisite for sound decision making. However, decision and policymakers are often not aware of their objectives when facing important decisions in “normal” times. In addition, specific objectives have to be identified in times of crisis such as theCOVID-19 pandemic.

    In this article, we provide guidelines for managers that illustrate the following. (i) How to identify company objectives? (ii) How to align them within their supply chains and with governmental objectives of policy makers? (iii) How to adjust objectives during and after theCOVID-19 pandemic? Furthermore, we suggest comprehensive sets of relevant objectives and propose an iterative process to define, align, and adjust objectives.

    The study may help practitioners from business and public administration when making decisions and policies. Researchers may be inspired by the outlined viewpoints on decision-making processes and the addressed perspectives for future research.

    Siebert, Johannes U.; Brandenburg, Markus; Siebert, Jana. “Defining and aligning supply chain objectives before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic”, IEEE Engineering Management Review, 48(4), 2020, 72-85, doi: 10.1109/EMR.2020.3032369

  • Minimizing the impact of fake news on the real world by debiasing the belief perseverance bias

    Minimizing the impact of fake news on the real world by debiasing the belief perseverance bias

    Fake news is false news stories packaged and published as if they were genuine with the intention to mislead the reader to damage an agency, an entity, or a person or to increase an internet click revenue. During the 2016 US presidential election campaign, fake news became a global phenomenon, in particular, due to the growing use of social media as a source for news. The proliferation of fake news online has been of increased concern to the European Parliament since. However, no agreement on how to tackle this issue has been reached. 

    Debiasing refers to attempts to eliminate or at least reduce biases. Only a few debiasing methods have been introduced for the belief-perseverance and confirmation biases so far. Although it was suggested already in early publications that effective debiasing methods should include a combination of various debiasing techniques, scholars have instead focused on isolated debiasing techniques. Moreover, the already limited experimental empirical research on debiasing motivational biases has focused primarily on investigating the efficacy of single debiasing methods without comparing the efficacy of different debiasing methods and without studying their efficiency. Due to missing experimentally-driven comparisons of debiasing methods within one experiment, there are only limited implications for practical applications in terms of which debiasing method to use in order to achieve the best debiasing effect. 

    The PerFake project aims to fill in this research gap and contribute to the advancement in the research field by: 

    1. improving the existing debiasing methods, developing new ones, and combining them; 
    2. comparing the efficacy of various debiasing methods and their combinations;
    3. measuring and comparing the efficiency of multiple debiasing methods and their combinations. 

    The efficacy and efficiency of the debiasing methods will be tested in two questionnaire-based experiments in order to derive recommendations. For the first experiment, we will use and adapt an experimental setting from the literature in which belief perseverance has already been demonstrated. The experimental setting of the second experiment will then be designed in a way to be as close as possible to the fake news environment in order to be able to derive conclusions and recommendations that are applicable in practice.

  • Developing methods for identifying, structuring and comparing objectives

    Developing methods for identifying, structuring and comparing objectives

    Veröffentlichung

    Siebert, Johannes; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; John, Richard. “Identifying and Structuring the Objectives of the “Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant” (ISIL) and its Followers.” Decision Analysis (INFORMS), 2016, 13(1), 26-50

    Siebert, Johannes U.; von Winterfeldt, Detlof. „Comparative Analysis of Terrorists’ Objectives Hierarchies“, Decision Analysis (INFORMS) June 2020, 17(2), 97-114, https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2019.0400

    Identifying the objectives of a hostile organization whose decision-makers are not interested in cooperation or even contact with them might be dangerous. In such a case, the methods to identify objectives in a cooperative organizations cannot be applied. We developed a method to identify the objectives of a hostile organization using expert interviews and published speeches of their leaders. The method can also be applied in more moderate cases and could find widespread application, for example, to identify a competitor’s objectives. Furthermore, we developed a method to compare the objectives hierarchies of two or more organizations of one organization over time. The identification of such differences is crucial if they have a substantial impact. For example, to ensure the protection of the civilian population in the Middle East, Europe, and the United States concerning attacks by the terrorist group Islamic State it is necessary to identify similarities and differences of the objectives of Al Qaeda and Islamic State. The results can be used to analyze which measures that had been successful and effective against Al Qaeda could be transferred against Islamic State which not.

  • Comparative Analysis of Terrorists’ Objectives Hierarchies

    Comparative Analysis of Terrorists’ Objectives Hierarchies

    To develop effective counterterrorism strategies, it is important to understand the capabilities and objectives of terrorist groups. Much of the understanding of these groups comes from intelligence collection and analysis of their capabilities. In contrast, the objectives of terrorists are less well understood. In this article, we describe a decision analysis methodology to identify and structure the objectives of terrorists based on the statements and writings of their leaders. This methodology was applied in three case studies, resulting in the three objectives hierarchies of al-Qaeda, Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), and Hezbollah. In this article, we propose a method to compare the three objectives hierarchies, highlight their key differences, and draw conclusions about effective counterterrorism strategies. We find that all three terrorist groups have a wide range of objectives going far beyond the objective of killing and terrorizing people in the non-Muslim world. Among the shared objectives are destroying Israel and expelling Western powers from the Middle East. All three groups share the ambition to become a leader in the Islamic world. Key distinctions are the territorial ambitions of ISIL and Hezbollah versus the large-scale attack objectives of al-Qaeda. Objectives specific to ISIL are the establishment of a caliphate in Iraq and Syria and the re-creation of the power of Sunni Islam. Hezbollah has unique objectives related to the establishment of a Palestine State and to maintain the relationship with and support of Iran and Syria. Al-Qaeda’s objectives remain focused on large-scale attacks in the West. We also note a recent shift to provide support for small-scale attacks in the West by both al-Qaeda and ISIL. Our method can be used for comparing objectives hierarchies of different organizations as well as for comparing objectives hierarchies over time of one organization.

    Veröffentlichung

    Siebert, Johannes U.; von Winterfeldt, Detlof. „Comparative Analysis of Terrorists’ Objectives Hierarchies“, Decision Analysis (INFORMS) June 2020, 17(2), 97-114, https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2019.0400

  • Effects of Proactive Decision Making On Life Satisfaction

    Effects of Proactive Decision Making On Life Satisfaction

    Veröffentlichung

    Siebert, Johannes U.; Kunz, Reinhard, Rolf, Philipp. “Effects of Proactive Decision Making on Life Satisfaction”, European Journal of Operational Research, 280(1) 2020, 1171-1187,  doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2019.08.0111)

    Proactive decision making, a concept recently introduced to behavioural operational research and decision analysis, addresses effective decision making during its phase of generating alternatives. It is measured on a scale comprising six dimensions grouped into two categories: proactive personality traits and proactive cognitive skills. Personality traits are grounded on such theoretical constructs as a proactive attitude and proactive behaviour; cognitive skills reflect value-focused thinking and decision quality. These traits and skills have been used to explain decision satisfaction, although their antecedents and other consequences have not yet been the subject of rigorous hypotheses and testing.

    This paper embeds proactive decision making within a model of three possible consequences. We consider—and empirically test—decision satisfaction, general self-efficacy, and life satisfaction by conducting three studies with 1,300 participants. We then apply structural equation modelling to show that proactive decision making helps account for life satisfaction, an explanation mediated by general self-efficacy and decision satisfaction. Thus proactive decision making fosters greater belief in one’s abilities and increases satisfaction with one’s decisions and with life more generally. These results imply that it is worthwhile to help individuals enhance their decision-making proactivity.

    Demonstrating the positive effects of proactive decision making at the individual level underscores how important is the phase of generating alternatives, and it also highlights the merit of employing “decision quality” principles and being proactive during that phase. Hence the findings presented here confirm the relevance of OR, and of decision-analytic principles, to the lives of ordinary people.

  • Developing the decision support system “Entscheidungsnavi”

    Developing the decision support system “Entscheidungsnavi”

    Veröffentlichung

    von Nitzsch Rüdiger, Tönsfeuerborn Mendy., Siebert Johannes U. (2020) Decision Skill Training with the Entscheidungsnavi. In: de Almeida A.T., Morais D.C. (eds) Innovation for Systems Information and Decision. INSID 2020. Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing, vol 405. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-64399-7_2

    Siebert, Johannes; Rüdiger von Nitzsch. “Das Jobauswahlproblem für Berufseinsteiger: Eine entscheidungstheoretische Anwendung – Teil 1: Problemstrukturierung in Ziele, Alternativen und Unsicherheiten“, Wissenschaftliche Beiträge, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliches Studium, October 2018

    Rüdiger von Nitzsch; Siebert, Johannes. „Das Jobauswahlproblem für Berufseinsteiger: Eine entscheidungstheoretische Anwendung – Teil 2: Ermittlung der besten Alternative mit dem ENTSCHEIDUNGSNAVI“, Wissenschaftliche Beiträge, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliches Studium, November 2018

    Rüdiger von Nitzsch; Siebert, Johannes. „Systematische Entscheidungshilfe durch das ENTSCHEIDUNGSNAVI: Hintergründe und Erläuterungen

    My objective improving individual and organizational decision-making. Therefore, my colleague von Nitzsch (RWTH Aachen) and I develop a web-based decision support system for decisions with multiple objectives (www.entscheidungsnavi.de, more information the project: www.proaktiv-entscheiden.de). The special about the entscheidungsnavi is sophisticated support which allows decision-makers to structure their decision problem appropriately. Furthermore, the latest research results on decision-making biases and behavior, in general, are considered to ensure high-quality results

  • Developing more and better alternatives (individually as well as in groups)

    Developing more and better alternatives (individually as well as in groups)

    Papers

    Siebert, Johannes; Keeney, Ralph L. “Creating More and Better Alternatives for Decisions Using Objectives”. Operations Research, September/October 2015, 63(5), 1144-1158, 1

    Siebert, Johannes. “Can Novices Create Alternatives of the Same Quality as Experts?”,  Decision Analysis (INFORMS) 2016, 13(4), 278-291

    Many individuals and organizations spend most of their effort evaluating alternatives without ensuring that the best possible alternative is to be chosen. Therefore, we analyzed how individuals and organizations can systematically create more and better alternatives to improve the outcome of their decision-making. The main idea is to use objectives as a stimulus in alternative creation (Keeney 1992). In cooperation with Ralph Keeney (Duke University, USA), I conducted five experiments. The participants created alternatives for essential decisions they were highly involved with. In summary, these experiments provided extensive evidence that using objectives for creating alternatives impacts the number and quality of alternatives created significantly. The results were used to derive a guideline for creating alternatives in critical decision situations.

  • Can Novices Create Alternatives of The Same Quality as Experts?

    Can Novices Create Alternatives of The Same Quality as Experts?

    Veröffentlichung

    Siebert, Johannes U. “Can Novices Create Alternatives of the Same Quality as Experts?”, Decision Analysis (INFORMS) 2016, 13(4), 278-291, https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2016.0339

    The quality of alternatives is crucial for making good decisions. The process of generating high-quality alternatives can be enhanced by using decision makers’ objectives as prompts. This paper examines empirically the impact and interrelation of experience and the prompting with objectives on decision makers’ ability to create alternatives for an important decision. The study confirms with high significance that both experience and prompting with objectives enhance the quality of alternatives. We are able to show that all participants, irrespective of their experience, enhance the quality of their alternatives when they are prompted with objectives; i.e., the relationship between being prompted with objectives and the quality of alternatives is not moderated by experience. In contrast to gaining experience, prompting a participant with objectives can be utilized immediately without a long learning phase and is able to substitute for experience in certain decision contexts. Furthermore, we analyze how prompting with objectives affects the creation of alternatives. We find evidence that the relation between being prompted with objectives and the quality of alternatives is partially mediated by the number of objectives considered while creating alternatives.

  • Recommendations about decision-making for California ministry of transportation

    Recommendations about decision-making for California ministry of transportation

    The California Department of Transportation has a budget of approximately US$ 10 billion over four years for repairing the infrastructure of California’s freeways and freeway bridges. However, this budget is not sufficient to implement all the measures requested. A selection of measures to be carried out must therefore be made. Among other things, this is difficult because, for example, the representatives of the various Californian districts are demanding as many repair measures as possible in their own administrative area to improve their district’s infrastructure, create jobs, and ultimately be re-elected. Similar problems, for example, in allocating funds for broadband expansion, are all too well known in Germany. Clear and precise evaluation criteria are required for transparent evaluation and logical selection.



    In joint work with Ralph Keeney, I supported the California Department of Transportation in this selection decision in autumn 2014. In the first step, individual and group interviews were conducted with decision makers from the California Department of Transportation to identify relevant values and goals. In the second step, the goals were structured, and, in particular, the strategic objectives were calculated. In the third step, the goals were operationalized, i.e., made measurable. On this basis, the California Department of Transportation can evaluate all measures transparently and comprehensibly and make an appropriate decision about their selection.