When a team in professional soccer fails to achieve the hoped-for results, many fans almost reflexively call for a new coach. In my article on Focus Online, I explain why it is often a bad idea to give in to this demand.
A team is behind and needs two goals in the last quarter of an hour to turn the game around. In this critical situation, the coach decides to substitute a striker for a defender. The striker scores the two long-awaited goals and the team wins. Was the substitution of the striker a good decision by the coach? Many fans, commentators and media clearly say “Yes!”. In the event of a defeat, they would have vehemently demanded the dismissal of the coach, whom they are now celebrating for his tactical foresight. In terms of decision-making theory, this reaction – as understandable as it may seem at first glance – does not make sense.
This becomes clear with a counter-example. Let’s assume Dietmar Hamann, who has long since ended his active career and works as a television pundit, is eligible to play and is sitting on the substitutes’ bench ready for action. He is substituted by the coach a quarter of an hour before the end of the game, an opponent’s clearance hits him on the back and the ball bounces into the goal. A few seconds before the final whistle, there is a similar scene. Dietmar Hamann scores the redemptive goal. The team is victorious. Was it a good decision to substitute the “soccer pensioner” Hamann? Certainly not. But perhaps the coach could have made a decision that was more likely to win.
At Bayern Munich, for example, Jupp Heynckes and Pep Guardiola sometimes used to put the very strong defender Daniel von Buyten in the center of the attack as a tactical measure instead of replacing him with another striker. Van Buyten tied up to two opponents and thus created space for his teammates. Coaches are less celebrated by fans and the media for such measures. The reason for this is that the result of the decision is not directly linked to the coach’s decision, as would be the case if a substitute scored a goal.
Read the full article here (in German): https://www.focus.de/experts/entscheidungsexperte-warnt-warum-vereine-bei-trainerentlassungen-zweimal-ueberlegen-sollten_id_259845761.html
