Veröffentlichung

Siebert, Johannes U. “Can Novices Create Alternatives of the Same Quality as Experts?”, Decision Analysis (INFORMS) 2016, 13(4), 278-291, https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2016.0339

The quality of alternatives is crucial for making good decisions. The process of generating high-quality alternatives can be enhanced by using decision makers’ objectives as prompts. This paper examines empirically the impact and interrelation of experience and the prompting with objectives on decision makers’ ability to create alternatives for an important decision. The study confirms with high significance that both experience and prompting with objectives enhance the quality of alternatives. We are able to show that all participants, irrespective of their experience, enhance the quality of their alternatives when they are prompted with objectives; i.e., the relationship between being prompted with objectives and the quality of alternatives is not moderated by experience. In contrast to gaining experience, prompting a participant with objectives can be utilized immediately without a long learning phase and is able to substitute for experience in certain decision contexts. Furthermore, we analyze how prompting with objectives affects the creation of alternatives. We find evidence that the relation between being prompted with objectives and the quality of alternatives is partially mediated by the number of objectives considered while creating alternatives.

Veröffentlichung

Kunz, Reinhard; Siebert, Johannes U.; Mütterlein, Joschka. „A Media-Specific Balanced Scorecard Based on Value-Focused Thinking“, Journal of Media Business Studies, 13(4), 2016, 257-275. http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/16522354.2016.1220114

Objectives are fundamental to strategic management. However, while research exists on objectives of media companies, we know little about the relationships between them. In order to advance research in this field, we used value-focused thinking to investigate the objectives of a media company and the balanced scorecard as a framework to demonstrate their relationships.

In interviews with 23 managers and employees of a German medium-sized local newspaper company, we found 698 distinct objectives and 1009 relationships. By concentrating on the most important objectives, we derived a balanced scorecard with 33 objectives and 65 relationships organised in seven perspectives. The results were then validated in a second case study on a Czech national media group.

Veröffentlichung

Kunz, Reinhard; Siebert, Johannes U.; Mütterlein. “Combining Value-Focused Thinking and Balanced Scorecard to Improve Decision-Making in Strategic Management”, Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, September-December, 2016, 225-241DOI: 10.1002/mcda.1572

Goal orientation is key to strategic management. In this field, the Balanced Scorecard is one of the most widely used management tools. It structures a company’s main objectives from different perspectives based on the strategy of the firm and uses performance indicators to measure the achievement of objectives and strategy. However, its method of creation is not theoretically sound. Value‐focused thinking is a decision‐making philosophy that fits perfectly with Balanced Scorecard creation. It provides methods and techniques for the identification and structuring of objectives that are suitable to systematically derive a scorecard from a means‐ends network. However, such a means‐ends network is often too complex for enduring use in strategic management. By adapting the network’s structure to the Balanced Scorecard’s layout, the profound and clear set of derived objectives and their measures serve as a reasonable basis for applying methods of multi‐criteria decision‐making in an organization.

This paper aimed to outline a procedure that merges the Balanced Scorecard and value‐focused thinking by preserving each concept’s strengths while eliminating their weaknesses. A six‐step process was developed theoretically and employed empirically in a case study. This process included (1) identifying objectives; (2) structuring objectives; (3) characterizing clusters of objectives; (4) formulating mission, vision, and strategy; (5) designing the scorecard; and (6) monitoring and adapting to change. On the basis of this approach, a Management Scorecard was produced that enabled strategy development and execution, put forth a clear and comprehensive means‐ends network, and visualized a company’s most important objectives and their relationships structured through perspectives roughly following the Balanced Scorecard. It acts as a foundation for research to generalize and compare findings regarding goals of organizations. Our procedure demonstrates how scientific methods, such as value‐focused thinking, can yield benefits to practitioners’ instruments, like the Balanced Scorecard, and how management tools can likewise improve scientific methods.

Veröffentlichung

Siebert, Johannes U.; Kunz, Reinhard. “Developing and Validating the Multidimensional Proactive Decision-Making Scale”. Special Issue „Behavioral Operations Research“ in European Journal of Operational Research, 249(3) 2016, 864-877.dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2015.06.066

On the basis of an extensive interdisciplinary literature review proactive decision-making (PDM) is conceptualised as a multidimensional concept. We conduct five studies with over 4,000 participants from various countries for developing and validating a theoretically consistent and psychometrically sound scale of PDM.

The PDM concept is developed and appropriate items are derived from literature. Six dimensions are conceptualised: the four proactive cognitive skills ‘systematic identification of objectives’, ‘systematic search for information’, ‘systematic identification of alternatives’, and ‘using a ‘decision radar’’, and the two proactive personality traits ‘showing initiative’ and ‘striving for improvement’. Using principal component factor analysis and subsequent item analysis as well as confirmatory factor analysis, six conceptually distinct dimensional factors are identified and tested acceptably reliable and valid.

Our results are remarkably similar for individuals who are decision-makers, decision analysts, both or none of both with different levels of experience. There is strong evidence that individuals with high scores in a PDM factor, e.g. proactive cognitive skills or personality traits, show a significantly higher decision satisfaction. Thus, the PDM scale can be used in future research to analyse other concepts. Furthermore, the scale can be applied, e.g. by staff teams to work on OR problems effectively or to inform a decision analyst about the decision behaviour in an organisation.

Veröffentlichung

Siebert, Johannes U.; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; John, Richard. “Identifying and Structuring the Objectives of the “Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant” (ISIL) and its Followers.” Decision Analysis (INFORMS), 2016, 13(1), 26-50, dx.doi.org/10.1287/deca.2015.0324

This study addressed three questions: 1. What are the objectives of the leaders of ISIL? 2. What are the objectives of the followers of ISIL? 3. How are the two sets of objectives related? To answer these questions we analyzed the transcripts of interviews and presentations of 59 subject matter experts (SMEs) and conducted a separate analysis of speeches of ISIL leaders and selected Internet sources. In both efforts we identified and structured the strategic, fundamental, and means objectives of ISIL and its followers.

The results indicate that ISIL’s leaders pursue four strategic objectives: Establish a Caliphate in Iraq and the Levant, Control and Govern the Caliphate, Expand Islam and Sharia Law Worldwide, and Recreate the Power and Glory of (Sunni) Islam. The followers’ objectives can be partitioned into three strategic objectives: Humanitarian Fulfillment, Religious Fulfillment and Personal Fulfillment.

The objectives identified from the SME interviews were similar to those identified from ISIL leaders’ statements and the Internet. However, the Internet search revealed many more personal objectives of ISIL followers. The results further indicate that ISIL’s leadership objectives are closely aligned with those of its followers. There also is a sharp contrast between the objectives of ISIL and those of Al Qaeda, particularly ISIL’s emphasis on occupying and controlling territories in Iraq and Syria vs. Al Qaeda’s focus on worldwide jihad.

Veröffentlichung

Siebert, Johannes U.; Keeney, Ralph L. “Creating More and Better Alternatives for Decisions Using Objectives”. Operations Research, September/October 2015, 63(5), 1144-1158. dx.doi.org/10.1287/opre.2015.1411

The quality of alternatives is crucial for making good decisions. This research, based on five empirical studies of important personally relevant decisions, examines the ability of decision makers to create alternatives for their important decisions and the effectiveness of different stimuli for improving this ability. For decisions for which the full set of potentially desirable alternatives is not readily apparent, our first study indicates that decision makers identify less than half of their alternatives and that the average quality of the overlooked alternatives is the same as those identified. Four other studies provide insight about how to use objectives to stimulate the alternative-creation process of decision makers and confirm with high significance that such use enhances both the number and quality of created alternatives. Using results of the studies, practical guidelines to create alternatives for important decisions are presented.