Veröffentlichungen

Johannes Ulrich Siebert, Reinhard E. Kunz, Philipp Rolf. Effects of decision training on individuals’ decision-making proactivity. European Journal of Operational Research (2021), DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2021.01.010

Johannes Ulrich Siebert, Reinhard E. Kunz, Philipp Rolf: Effects of proactive decision making on life satisfaction. European Journal of Operational Research (2020), 280, 1171-1187. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2019.08.011[JS1] 

Universität Bayreuth, Pressemitteilung Nr. 020/2021 vom 15.02.2021

People who make smart decisions in important private and professional matters increase their chances of greater life satisfaction. The cognitive skills required for this can be significantly honed through training. This is the conclusion reached by researchers at the University of Bayreuth in recent empirical studies published in the European Journal of Operational Research. Courses lasting several weeks with participants of different age and occupational groups demonstrably strengthened their ability to make well-considered choices in difficult decision-making situations.

When cognitive skills that produce proactive, wise decision-making behaviour are too weak, wrong decisions are made, or more precisely, suboptimal courses of action are chosen. Not infrequently, this permanently impairs quality of life and life satisfaction. However, training courses that include both basic knowledge and practical exercises can significantly improve decision-making behaviour – precisely by strengthening cognitive skills. These include, above all, the cognitive skills to approach decision-making situations proactively and with foresight, to gain clarity about one’s own goals, to identify promising options, and to make the best possible choice by weighing them carefully. This is what a research team at the University of Bayreuth has discovered over several years of work. PD Dr. Johannes Siebert, Philipp Rolf, and former Junior Professor Dr. Reinhard Kunz, who now holds a professorship at the University of Cologne, were involved.

Training, however, cannot change personality traits, which – in addition to cognitive skills – also have a significant influence on decision-making behaviour. “Dispositions that are effective in the long term, such as striving for self-optimization or an attitude toward life that takes initiative, obviously cannot be formed within a few weeks or months as a result of training courses,” explains Siebert, who completed his habilitation in Bayreuth and is currently researching and teaching at the Management Center Innsbruck.

In a previous study, the Bayreuth researchers were able to demonstrate that smart, proactive decision-making behaviour can significantly promote life satisfaction. The decisive factor here is not only the skill to prudently evaluate and weigh up given options for action, but also the skill to independently discover further options or even create new ones. “Our studies clearly show that the extent to which we are satisfied with our lives by no means depends solely on circumstances outside our control. Proactive decision-making behaviour helps us to open up new and better options for action and thereby strengthens our own quality of life. Because we can specifically train the skills required for this, it is in our own hands whether we develop into satisfied people or not,” says Philipp Rolf, Research Associate at the Production Management & Industrial Management research group at the University of Bayreuth.

The new findings on strengthening the cognitive characteristics that are important for good decision-making emerged from the scientific monitoring and evaluation of three courses that lasted several weeks. An online course on the quality of decisions was conducted in cooperation with a renowned U.S. university, a lecture on decision theory was held at a technical university in Germany, and courses at the Management Center Innsbruck in Austria focused on the systematic structuring and solving of decision-making situations. The more than 1,000 participants in total belonged to different age and professional groups, and thus represented a broad social spectrum. “All three courses demonstrably strengthened participants’ ability to reach the right decisions through proactive and smart thinking – regardless of their age, gender, or occupation,” says Siebert.

“KLUG entscheiden!” (deciding smart): A school project in Upper Franconia

The results of the two studies will also be incorporated into the “KLUG entscheiden!” school project, which was launched three years ago in Upper Franconia and the Upper Palatinate. In workshops, numerous students have already been guided to making well-founded and far-sighted decisions in selecting an apprenticeship or a course of study after leaving school. In addition, teachers have been familiarized with the basics of decision theory and instructed in how to integrate the content developed in the project into their teaching. At the same time, the project addresses the question of how schools can promote such decision-making behaviour. “Initial results show that students can train their decision-making skills and subsequently approach their career choice decisions more confidently. This results in very interesting new starting points for supporting young people,” Siebert sums up. The project is financially supported by the Rainer Markgraf Foundation, the Adalbert-Raps-Foundation, and the Upper Franconia Foundation, and will be continued until the end of 2021 in collaboration with the University of Bayreuth.

Source: „Learning to decide wisely and becoming happy: Studies show the effect of training on decision-making behaviour“, Media release of the University of Bayreuth 020/2021 (link, link) 15^th of February

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Veröffentlichung

Siebert, Johannes U.; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; John, Richard. “Identifying and Structuring the Objectives of the “Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant” (ISIL) and its Followers.”Decision Analysis (INFORMS), 13(1), 2016, 26-50,dx.doi.org/10.1287/deca.2015.0324

What does the Islamic State want? Dr. Johannes Siebert at the University of Bayreuth and U.S. researchers at the University of Southern California (USC) have systematically analyzed the IS’s objectives for the first time. The study was recently published in the renowned INFORMS journal Decision Analysis.

The decision-theoretical methodology on which the study is based was originally developed in economics and can in principle be applied to any institution, organization or group and also to individual persons. In particular, it works with scientifically proven methods of examining written texts and oral statements. The authors have analyzed a variety of sources in this way:

Interviews with 59 experts in the following fields: Islamist terror and jihadist movements; Middle East politics and international relations; history, anthropology, and sociology; and psychology of terrorism.

Publicly available sources of information on the Internet: Transcripts of 12 speeches by the most prominent IS leaders; expert interviews and articles related to IS published in U.S. or German media.

On this basis, Dr. Johannes Siebert, an economist at the University of Bayreuth, and Prof. Detlof von Winterfeldt and Prof. Richard John at USC elaborated and compared the objectives of the IS leadership and the objectives of IS supporters.

Objectives of IS-leadership

Die IS-Führung verfolgt strategische Ziele, die einerseits stärker religiös, andererseits stärker militärisch ausgerichtet sind. In militärischer Hinsicht will sie im Irak und an der Levante ein Kalifat errichten. Um diese Absicht zu verwirklichen, will sie die beste

The IS leadership is pursuing strategic objectives that are more religiously oriented on the one hand and more militarily oriented on the other. In military terms, it wants to establish a caliphate in Iraq and the Levant. To achieve this goal, it wants to eliminate the existing governments in Iraq and the Levant, keep its own territory under control and steadily expand it, and increase the number of fighters and followers. Another militarily accentuated objective is to control and govern this caliphate, which is to function as an Islamic State and provide services to its own citizens. The supply of military and civilian goods is to be secured, internal security maintained and at least the appearance of state order guaranteed.

Clearly religiously accentuated, on the other hand, is the strategic objective of members of the IS leadership to restore the strengths and glory of Sunni Islam. With this in mind, they want to implement a pure and strict version of Islam in their own territory, give meaning to the lives of Sunni believers, enforce sharia by the sword, and be recognized as leaders of Islam. This is followed on the strategic level by another religious objective: the worldwide spread of Islam and Sharia norms. To this end, the world is to be ‘cleansed’ of anti-Islamic forces and other countries attacked from within. Foreign powers are to be prevented from interfering politically and militarily in Iraq and the Levant.

The IS leadership considers two means in particular to be consistently suitable for achieving these objectives at the operational level: Killing, intimidating and/or converting infidels and generating financial resources.

In the area of tension between territorial warfare and the export of religion

“In the early days of IS, the focus was more on the military-oriented objectives related to the establishment and control of a caliphate. It was mainly Saddam Hussein’s former military leaders who focused on this,” explains Dr. Johannes Siebert. “Because IS was very much interested in its own statehood in the Middle East, there initially seemed to be a clear difference from Al-Qaeda. This is because the core objectives of this movement have always included attacking people and institutions abroad. The Paris attacks, however, suggest that IS’s religiously based objectives have recently gained more weight – both at the strategic level and among its followers. Many IS fighters from Arab countries are apparently willing to die abroad for the global spread of Islam and Sharia law.”

The authors of the study draw attention to the fact that the religious and military objectives pursued by IS leaders are not infrequently in tension with each other. The religiously motivated, violent struggle for the export of a ‘pure’ Islam to other regions of the world could lead to a growing willingness of the attacked states to fight the IS on its own territory. Occupying and defending this territory, in turn, ties up resources that IS, on the other hand, would need to plan and finance attacks abroad. 

Objectives of IS-followers

Within IS’s followers, the scholars distinguish three strategic objectives: humanitarian, religious, and personal fulfillment. Fighting for general humanitarian causes – and especially for those of the Sunnis – is a strategic dimension that should not be underestimated in the authors’ view. Many IS supporters act in the belief that their fighting efforts serve to (re)establish and spread living conditions characterized by social justice, tranquility, security and the absence of oppression. A strong motive is likewise the religious fulfillment that IS supporters believe they find by espousing a ‘pure’ and austere version of Islam and ‘fighting for God’. These religious and humanitarian objectives of the followers are largely consistent with the strategic objectives of the IS leadership.

The situation is different with regard to the personal fulfillment that many supporters expect from working for IS. Belonging to a ‘brotherhood of fighters’, attacking citizens of Western countries and Jews, acting out their own violence and brutality – with these intentions, IS supporters fit in well with the strategic objectives of the IS leadership. But equally, they seek personal satisfaction through gaining power, improving their material situation, and increasing self-esteem. “These intentions often go unsatisfied, so IS followers do not always find the personal fulfillment they seek. That is why some young men from Western countries who have joined IS as fighters return disappointed,” explains Dr. Johannes Siebert. “If they repeatedly report these experiences publicly, this could potentially dampen the illusions of other young people who are attracted to IS.”

Source: Universität Bayreuth, Pressemitteilung Nr. 221/2015 vom 25. November 2015