Category Archives: Research

The crucial research questions are how their proactivity in decision situations can characterize individuals, the eventual consequences of proactivity in decision situations, and how the degree of proactivity affects the satisfaction with one’s decisions. The scale on Proactive Decision Making (PDM) that has been theoretically developed from literature and empirically validated in cooperation with Prof. Reinhard Kunz (University of Cologne) allows describing the degree of proactivity of individuals with six dimensions. Two dimensions cover proactive personality traits: ‘striving for improvement’ and ‘showing initiative’. The four dimensions ‘systematical identification of objectives’, ‘systematical identification of information’, ‘systematical identification of alternatives’, and “using a ‘decision radar’ concern proactive cognitive skills and integrate the ideas and concepts of value-focused thinking and decision quality into the PDM-scale.

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Die erste Entscheidung viele junge Menschen ist die, „was mache ich nach der Schule?“ Zumeist werden allenfalls unterschiedliche Möglichkeiten vorgestellt. Häufig wählen junge Menschen dann eine von den offensichtlichen oder von anderen Personen vorgeschlagenen Alternativen, ohne sich intensiver damit auseinanderzusetzen, was sie persönlich eigentlich wollen und was ihre Ziele sind. So hört man häufig von Jugendlichen: „Meine Mutter ist Ärztin, also studiere ich Medizin“, oder „Mein Vater ist Unternehmer. Ich studiere BWL“, oder aber auch „Meine Eltern haben nicht studiert. Ich soll auf keinen Fall den gleichen Fehler machen“. Grundsätzlich mögen diese Entscheidungen objektiv gesehen „vernünftig“ erscheinen; im Einzelfall ist es jedoch dringend notwendig, die Interessen, Wünsche und Voraussetzungen jedes/r Einzelnen individuell zu berücksichtigen.

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Fake news is false news stories packaged and published as if they were genuine with the intention to mislead the reader to damage an agency, an entity, or a person or to increase an internet click revenue. During the 2016 US presidential election campaign, fake news became a global phenomenon, in particular, due to the growing use of social media as a source for news. The proliferation of fake news online has been of increased concern to the European Parliament since. However, no agreement on how to tackle this issue has been reached.

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Identifying the objectives of a hostile organization whose decision-makers are not interested in cooperation or even contact with them might be dangerous. In such a case, the methods to identify objectives in a cooperative organizations cannot be applied. We developed a method to identify the objectives of a hostile organization using expert interviews and published speeches of their leaders. The method can also be applied in more moderate cases and could find widespread application, for example, to identify a competitor’s objectives. Furthermore, we developed a method to compare the objectives hierarchies of two or more organizations of one organization over time. The identification of such differences is crucial if they have a substantial impact. For example, to ensure the protection of the civilian population in the Middle East, Europe, and the United States concerning attacks by the terrorist group Islamic State it is necessary to identify similarities and differences of the objectives of Al Qaeda and Islamic State. The results can be used to analyze which measures that had been successful and effective against Al Qaeda could be transferred against Islamic State which not.

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My objective improving individual and organizational decision-making. Therefore, my colleague von Nitzsch (RWTH Aachen) and I develop a web-based decision support system for decisions with multiple objectives (www.entscheidungsnavi.de, more information the project: www.proaktiv-entscheiden.de). The special about the entscheidungsnavi is sophisticated support which allows decision-makers to structure their decision problem appropriately. Furthermore, the latest research results on decision-making biases and behavior, in general, are considered to ensure high-quality results

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Papers Siebert, Johannes; Keeney, Ralph L. “Creating More and Better Alternatives for Decisions Using Objectives”. Operations Research, September/October 2015, 63(5), 1144-1158, 1 Siebert, Johannes. “Can Novices Create Alternatives of the Same Quality as Experts?”,  Decision Analysis (INFORMS) 2016, 13(4), 278-291 Many individuals and organizations spend most of their effort evaluating alternatives without ensuring that the best possible alternative are to be chosen from. Therefore, we analyzed how individuals and organizations can systematically create more and better alternatives to improve the outcome of their decision-making. The main idea is to use objectives as a stimulus in alternatives` creation (Keeney 1992). In cooperation with Ralph Keeney (Duke University, USA), I have carried out a series of five experiments. The participants created alternatives for important decisions they were highly involved with. In summary, these experiments provided extensive evidence that using objectives for creating alternatives has a significant positive impact on the number and…

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