Johannes Siebert

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  • The job selection problem for career starters: a decision-theoretical application part 1: structuring the problem into objectives, alternatives, and uncertainties

    The job selection problem for career starters: a decision-theoretical application part 1: structuring the problem into objectives, alternatives, and uncertainties

    Dr. Johannes Siebert, Universität Bayreuth

    Veröffentlichung

    Siebert, Johannes U.; von Nitzsch, Rüdiger. “ The Job Selection Problem for Career Starters: A Decision-Theoretical Application. Part 1: Structuring the Problem into Objectives, Alternatives and Uncertainties“, Scientific Contributions, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliches Studium, October 2020

    This two-piece paper describes how to solve a practical decision problem using decision theory. The first part emphasizes the high importance of a solid structuring of the decision situation in objectives, alternatives, and uncertainties. It is shown how to proceed in this step with the support of a decision analyst. The following second part uses the results of the first part and shows how to find an optimal alternative by a quantification of the necessary parameter. Short text: After graduation, the question arises for the graduates with which job they want to start their further career. A decision-theoretical analysis uses a practical example to show how the decision problem can be well-structured with the help of a decision analyst.

  • »EMPOWER«:  A Decision Support System to Increase Efficiency of Logistic Processes in Upper Franconian SMEs

    »EMPOWER«:  A Decision Support System to Increase Efficiency of Logistic Processes in Upper Franconian SMEs

    Due to the changing framework conditions and customer requirements, such as shorter delivery times and increasing adherence to delivery dates, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Upper Franconia are increasingly confronted with an increase in logistics performance and a reduction in logistics costs. Logistics, especially production logistics, is an essential basis for these companies to generate competitive and cost advantages and is becoming increasingly important.

    In this context, however, many SMEs are asking themselves how the potential for generating competitive and cost advantages in production logistics can be identified, evaluated, and leveraged. Generally, it is possible to raise the identified potential by deriving concrete optimization measures. However, deriving these measures is difficult in many cases, and there is a deficit regarding a methodically structured and systematic decision-making process.

    The decision-making process in SMEs is often characterized by a system break between the analysis and decision-making phases. The result is that the recording and evaluation of the actual situation is insufficient or not taken into account in the decision-making phase, and the decision-making is neither based on the analysis phase nor based on an adequate definition of goals. The results here are implemented optimization measures (e.g., measures from the area of lean management) that make no or only a limited contribution to the achievement of the defined goals and may lead to deterioration at another point in the overall production-logistic system.

    The “empower” project aims to develop an interdisciplinary concept for methodical decision support when selecting alternative measures to increase the efficiency of production logistics processes in Upper Franconian SMEs. The concept is the basis for developing a software application that holistically supports the decision-making process. (© and further information: https://empower.fh-rosenheim.de/). An overview of relevant goals in production logistics can be found below.

  • Developing more and better alternatives (individually as well as in groups)

    Developing more and better alternatives (individually as well as in groups)

    Dr. Johannes Siebert, Universität Bayreuth

    Papers

    Siebert, Johannes; Keeney, Ralph L. “Creating More and Better Alternatives for Decisions Using Objectives”. Operations Research, September/October 2015, 63(5), 1144-1158, 1

    Siebert, Johannes. “Can Novices Create Alternatives of the Same Quality as Experts?”,  Decision Analysis (INFORMS) 2016, 13(4), 278-291

    Many individuals and organizations spend most of their effort evaluating alternatives without ensuring that the best possible alternative is to be chosen. Therefore, we analyzed how individuals and organizations can systematically create more and better alternatives to improve the outcome of their decision-making. The main idea is to use objectives as a stimulus in alternative creation (Keeney 1992). In cooperation with Ralph Keeney (Duke University, USA), I conducted five experiments. The participants created alternatives for essential decisions they were highly involved with. In summary, these experiments provided extensive evidence that using objectives for creating alternatives impacts the number and quality of alternatives created significantly. The results were used to derive a guideline for creating alternatives in critical decision situations.

  • Can Novices Create Alternatives of The Same Quality as Experts?

    Can Novices Create Alternatives of The Same Quality as Experts?

    Dr. Johannes Siebert, Universität Bayreuth

    Veröffentlichung

    Siebert, Johannes U. “Can Novices Create Alternatives of the Same Quality as Experts?”, Decision Analysis (INFORMS) 2016, 13(4), 278-291, https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2016.0339

    The quality of alternatives is crucial for making good decisions. The process of generating high-quality alternatives can be enhanced by using decision makers’ objectives as prompts. This paper examines empirically the impact and interrelation of experience and the prompting with objectives on decision makers’ ability to create alternatives for an important decision. The study confirms with high significance that both experience and prompting with objectives enhance the quality of alternatives. We are able to show that all participants, irrespective of their experience, enhance the quality of their alternatives when they are prompted with objectives; i.e., the relationship between being prompted with objectives and the quality of alternatives is not moderated by experience. In contrast to gaining experience, prompting a participant with objectives can be utilized immediately without a long learning phase and is able to substitute for experience in certain decision contexts. Furthermore, we analyze how prompting with objectives affects the creation of alternatives. We find evidence that the relation between being prompted with objectives and the quality of alternatives is partially mediated by the number of objectives considered while creating alternatives.

  • Recommendations about decision-making for California ministry of transportation

    Recommendations about decision-making for California ministry of transportation

    The California Department of Transportation has a budget of approximately US$ 10 billion over four years for repairing the infrastructure of California’s freeways and freeway bridges. However, this budget is not sufficient to implement all the measures requested. A selection of measures to be carried out must therefore be made. Among other things, this is difficult because, for example, the representatives of the various Californian districts are demanding as many repair measures as possible in their own administrative area to improve their district’s infrastructure, create jobs, and ultimately be re-elected. Similar problems, for example, in allocating funds for broadband expansion, are all too well known in Germany. Clear and precise evaluation criteria are required for transparent evaluation and logical selection.



    In joint work with Ralph Keeney, I supported the California Department of Transportation in this selection decision in autumn 2014. In the first step, individual and group interviews were conducted with decision makers from the California Department of Transportation to identify relevant values and goals. In the second step, the goals were structured, and, in particular, the strategic objectives were calculated. In the third step, the goals were operationalized, i.e., made measurable. On this basis, the California Department of Transportation can evaluate all measures transparently and comprehensibly and make an appropriate decision about their selection.

  • A Media-Specific Balanced Scorecard Based on Value-Focused Thinking

    A Media-Specific Balanced Scorecard Based on Value-Focused Thinking

    Dr. Johannes Siebert, Universität Bayreuth

    Veröffentlichung

    Kunz, Reinhard; Siebert, Johannes U.; Mütterlein, Joschka. „A Media-Specific Balanced Scorecard Based on Value-Focused Thinking“, Journal of Media Business Studies, 13(4), 2016, 257-275. http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/16522354.2016.1220114

    Objectives are fundamental to strategic management. However, while research exists on objectives of media companies, we know little about the relationships between them. In order to advance research in this field, we used value-focused thinking to investigate the objectives of a media company and the balanced scorecard as a framework to demonstrate their relationships.

    In interviews with 23 managers and employees of a German medium-sized local newspaper company, we found 698 distinct objectives and 1009 relationships. By concentrating on the most important objectives, we derived a balanced scorecard with 33 objectives and 65 relationships organised in seven perspectives. The results were then validated in a second case study on a Czech national media group.

  • Combining Value‐Focused Thinking and Balanced Scorecard to Improve Decision‐Making in Strategic Management

    Combining Value‐Focused Thinking and Balanced Scorecard to Improve Decision‐Making in Strategic Management

    Dr. Johannes Siebert, Universität Bayreuth

    Veröffentlichung

    Kunz, Reinhard; Siebert, Johannes U.; Mütterlein. “Combining Value-Focused Thinking and Balanced Scorecard to Improve Decision-Making in Strategic Management”, Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, September-December, 2016, 225-241DOI: 10.1002/mcda.1572

    Goal orientation is key to strategic management. In this field, the Balanced Scorecard is one of the most widely used management tools. It structures a company’s main objectives from different perspectives based on the strategy of the firm and uses performance indicators to measure the achievement of objectives and strategy. However, its method of creation is not theoretically sound. Value‐focused thinking is a decision‐making philosophy that fits perfectly with Balanced Scorecard creation. It provides methods and techniques for the identification and structuring of objectives that are suitable to systematically derive a scorecard from a means‐ends network. However, such a means‐ends network is often too complex for enduring use in strategic management. By adapting the network’s structure to the Balanced Scorecard’s layout, the profound and clear set of derived objectives and their measures serve as a reasonable basis for applying methods of multi‐criteria decision‐making in an organization.

    This paper aimed to outline a procedure that merges the Balanced Scorecard and value‐focused thinking by preserving each concept’s strengths while eliminating their weaknesses. A six‐step process was developed theoretically and employed empirically in a case study. This process included (1) identifying objectives; (2) structuring objectives; (3) characterizing clusters of objectives; (4) formulating mission, vision, and strategy; (5) designing the scorecard; and (6) monitoring and adapting to change. On the basis of this approach, a Management Scorecard was produced that enabled strategy development and execution, put forth a clear and comprehensive means‐ends network, and visualized a company’s most important objectives and their relationships structured through perspectives roughly following the Balanced Scorecard. It acts as a foundation for research to generalize and compare findings regarding goals of organizations. Our procedure demonstrates how scientific methods, such as value‐focused thinking, can yield benefits to practitioners’ instruments, like the Balanced Scorecard, and how management tools can likewise improve scientific methods.

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  • Designing a Media-Specific Balanced Scorecard by Applying Value-Focused Thinking

    Designing a Media-Specific Balanced Scorecard by Applying Value-Focused Thinking

    Dr. Johannes Siebert, Universität Bayreuth

    Publications

    Siebert, Johannes U.; Kunz, Reinhard „Entwicklung einer Balanced Scorecard mit Value-focused Thinking am Beispiel eines mittelgroßen Medienunternehmens“. Controlling: Zeitschrift für erfolgsorientierte Unternehmenssteuerung, March 2016, 210-215. DOI:  10.15358/0935-0381-2016-3-209

    Kunz, Reinhard; Siebert, Johannes; Mütterlein. “Combining Value-Focused Thinking and Balanced Scorecard to Improve Decision-Making in Strategic Management”, Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, September-December, 2016, 225-241 DOI: 10.1002/mcda.1572

    Kunz, Reinhard; Siebert, Johannes; Mütterlein, Joschka. „A Media-Specific Balanced Scorecard Based on Value-Focused Thinking“, Journal of Media Business Studies, 13(4), 2016, 257-275. http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/16522354.2016.1220114

    The Balanced Scorecard (Kaplan and Norton 1992) is one of the five management tools used most often and has been implemented by nearly 40 percent of the companies (Rigby and Bilodeau 2013). Yet, there is no theoretically sound approach for developing a balanced scorecard. Value-focused thinking is a decision-making philosophy that fits perfectly to Balanced Scorecard creation. It provides methods and techniques for the identification and structuring of objectives that are suitable to systematically derive a scorecard from a means-ends network. However, such a means-ends network is often too complex for enduring use in strategic management. By adapting the network’s structure to the Balanced Scorecard’s layout, the profound and clear set of derived objectives and their measures provide a reasonable basis for applying methods of multi-criteria decision-making in an organization. In a case study, we develop a media-specific Balanced Scorecard to provide media decision-makers with a model that takes characteristics of media management into account and that helps to manage their company successfully. Using a scientifically sound approach that is based on value-focused thinking (Keeney, 1992), we interview the publisher, the CEO, nine management representatives, and ten key employees of a German medium-sized local newspaper company. Overall, 698 distinct objectives and 1,009 relationships are identified. By concentrating on the most important objectives, we derive a Balanced Scorecard with 33 objectives and 65 relationships, which are organized in seven perspectives. Because of its innovativeness, this project was runner-up in the final of the Practice Awards der Decision Analysis Society (INFORMS).

  • Die Entwicklung einer Balanced Scorecard mit Value-Focused Thinking am Beispiel eines Medienunternehmens

    Die Entwicklung einer Balanced Scorecard mit Value-Focused Thinking am Beispiel eines Medienunternehmens

    Dr. Johannes Siebert, Universität Bayreuth

    Veröffentlichung

    Siebert, Johannes U.; Kunz, Reinhard „Entwicklung einer Balanced Scorecard mit Value-focused Thinking am Beispiel eines mittelgroßen Medienunternehmens“. Controlling:Zeitschrift für erfolgsorientierte Unternehmenssteuerung, March 2016, 210-215. DOI:  10.15358/0935-0381-2016-3-209

    This paper describes an innovative procedure to develop a sophisticated Balanced Scorecard using tools and methods of Value-focused Thinking. This procedure is illustrated for a medium-sized media company.

  • Developing and Validating the Multidimensional Proactive Decision-Making Scale

    Developing and Validating the Multidimensional Proactive Decision-Making Scale

    Dr. Johannes Siebert, Universität Bayreuth

    Veröffentlichung

    Siebert, Johannes U.; Kunz, Reinhard. “Developing and Validating the Multidimensional Proactive Decision-Making Scale”. Special Issue „Behavioral Operations Research“ in European Journal of Operational Research, 249(3) 2016, 864-877.dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2015.06.066

    On the basis of an extensive interdisciplinary literature review proactive decision-making (PDM) is conceptualised as a multidimensional concept. We conduct five studies with over 4,000 participants from various countries for developing and validating a theoretically consistent and psychometrically sound scale of PDM.

    The PDM concept is developed and appropriate items are derived from literature. Six dimensions are conceptualised: the four proactive cognitive skills ‘systematic identification of objectives’, ‘systematic search for information’, ‘systematic identification of alternatives’, and ‘using a ‘decision radar’’, and the two proactive personality traits ‘showing initiative’ and ‘striving for improvement’. Using principal component factor analysis and subsequent item analysis as well as confirmatory factor analysis, six conceptually distinct dimensional factors are identified and tested acceptably reliable and valid.

    Our results are remarkably similar for individuals who are decision-makers, decision analysts, both or none of both with different levels of experience. There is strong evidence that individuals with high scores in a PDM factor, e.g. proactive cognitive skills or personality traits, show a significantly higher decision satisfaction. Thus, the PDM scale can be used in future research to analyse other concepts. Furthermore, the scale can be applied, e.g. by staff teams to work on OR problems effectively or to inform a decision analyst about the decision behaviour in an organisation.