Johannes Siebert

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  • Supporting Innovation in Early-Stage Pharmaceutical Development Decisions

    Supporting Innovation in Early-Stage Pharmaceutical Development Decisions

    Pharmaceutical companies have frequent portfolio reviews to monitor development progress and prioritize development assets. The earliest assets are drug candidates whose efficacy is unknown and whose effects on the human body have yet to be fully investigated. These assets are characterized by a high degree of uncertainty in reaching the market and in being used in clinical practice. In addition, not all potential applications are foreseen and can often be very different. In the absence of satisfactory methods for making decisions on resource allocation among early development assets, decision makers focus almost exclusively on assessments of an asset’s probability of technical success.

    This study proposes a more holistic methodology to support early-stage pharmaceutical development decisions using value-focused thinking and multicriteria decision making. The methodology operates within the decision quality framework and provides a consistent evaluation of various early development assets across a diverse set of disease areas. This combination of concepts and methodologies has been implemented and proven valuable at Bayer Pharmaceuticals, which needed a new, more robust decisionmaking process for early development. Thus, this study discusses how to enable concrete trade-offs at the level of corporate objectives to align, communicate, and translate corporate strategy into portfolio strategy.

    In addition, this study presents learnings for decision analysts and decision makers in the pharmaceutical industry on how to develop a set of fundamental objectives, how to create scales to operationalize these objectives, and how to take steps to debias an organizational decision-making process.

    Methling, Florian; Borden, Steffen A., Veeraraghavan, Deepak; Sommer; Insa, Siebert, Johannes Ulrich; von Nitzsch, Rüdiger; Seidler, Mark „Supporting Innovation in Early-Stage Pharmaceutical Development Decisions “, in Special Issue on Health Decision Analysis: Evolution, Trends, and Emerging Topics by Elisa F. Long, Gilberto Montibeller, Jun Zhuang, Decision Analysis (INFORMS), https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2022.0452

  • The research project PerFake explores methods to reduce the influence of fake news on individuals

    The research project PerFake explores methods to reduce the influence of fake news on individuals

    Fake news became a global phenomenon with the 2016 U.S. presidential election and the Brexit referendum, particularly because more and more people are using social media as a source of news without reflection. The spread of fake news on the Internet and its consequences are being intensively discussed in the European Parliament. Nevertheless, so far, there is no clear agreement on how to reduce the influence of fake news.

    „The problem with fake news is that even if it is flawlessly identified as such, something still „sticks“ – the fake news continues to influence our opinion”, explains Prof. Johannes Siebert, who researches and teaches at MCI | The Entrepreneurial School®. This phenomenon is called „belief perseverance bias“ and explains the great influence of fake news on the formation of opinion and the decision-making behavior of many people. „There are numerous newsrooms and nonprofit organizations that identify fake news. This very elaborate work helps reduce the influence of fake news. However, these fact checks can only be a first step,“ adds Dr. Jana Siebert from the Palacky University Olomouc in the Czech Republic.

    The two researchers have been working on the methodological reduction of the belief perseverance bias in the context of fake news in the project „PerFake“ funded by the European Union and the Czech Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports. The aim of the PerFake project was to contribute to reducing the negative influence of fake news. Prof. Johannes Siebert and Dr. Jana Siebert developed two methods to reduce the belief perseverance bias and tested and optimized them in two experiments with numerous participants. The experiments consisted of three main steps. Participants were (1) confronted with fake news, (2) informed that it was fake news, and (3) confronted with methods to reduce the bias. At each step, participants’ opinion was measured to determine the bias and analyze the effectiveness of the methods to reduce that bias.

    Both tested debiasing methods showed promising results in reducing the belief perseverance bias. The debiasing method „counter-speech“ focuses on refuting the fake news by clear counter-arguments. The debiasing method „awareness training“ generally informs the participants about the existence of the belief perseverance bias and how the bias works. Such awareness training could help increase society’s resilience to fake news. Prof. Johannes Siebert explains how this can work in practice: „Let us assume you have received a piece of information, for example, you have heard a speech by a politician or read a post on social media. A fact check shows that it is fake news. Being aware of the belief perseverance bias should then help you realize that your original opinion may still be negatively influenced by the fake news and subsequently correct this bias.“ Dr. Jana Siebert adds: „It would, therefore, be desirable to educate the public about the belief perseverance bias and the way it works. For example, fact-checking organizations could complement their fact checks with a note informing about the belief perseverance bias. Such a note could significantly increase the effectiveness of fact-checking and society’s resilience to fake news.“

    Source: „Reduktion des Einflusses von Fake News“, News des Forschungsschwerpunks Innovation, Entrepreneurship & Marketing at MCI | THE ENTREPRENEURIAL SCHOOL®, 24th of February 2022 (link)

  • Fact checks can only be a first step

    Fact checks can only be a first step

    Fake news: a globalphenomenon with a negative impact on opinions. Professor Johannes Siebert from MCI and Dr. Jana Siebert from Palacky University Olomouc are fighting against this with their project “PerFake”.

    “Misinformation has always been a part of our society,” says Johannes Siebert. With the Brexit referendum and the 2016 U.S. presidential election, fake news – “misinformation deliberately spread to manipulate opinions,” the professor says – has become a global phenomenon. Ubiquitous. The spread of false facts has been aided in recent years by digital social networks, he said. In particular, by the fact that more and more people living in their Facebook bubble unthinkingly refer to it as a source for news.

    You can find the full interview here: https://www.unipress.at/wissenschaft/faktenchecks-koennen-nur-ein-erster-schritt-sein/

  • The luck of the wise decision

    The luck of the wise decision

    Very few people have learned how to make good decisions. Yet the ability to consciously find optimal decisions makes people happier in life. In the Standard, I explain how people can train themselves to make better decisions and, as a result, be more satisfied with their lives.

    Being self-determined means constantly making your own decisions. As we all know, these are not always the right ones. Afterwards, one is usually smarter, but then also often more frustrated, because what was actually planned did not occur. Johannes Siebert from the Management Center Innsbruck (MCI) and his team have proven this connection in several empirical studies: “We have shown in a structural equation model that those who have higher proactive cognitive abilities for decision-making are subsequently more satisfied with their lives,” Siebert reports. Such skills, which are necessary for making wise decisions in private life or at work, can be improved through appropriate training….

    The full article by Johannes Lau can be found here.

    References

    Siebert, Johannes U., Becker, Maxi; Oeser, Nadine. “Making the right career choice: A new educational tool to train decision-making proactivity in high school students” (Decision Sciences Journal for Innovative Education), https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/dsji.12280

    Siebert, Johannes U.; Kunz, Reinhard, Rolf, Philipp. “Effects of decision training on individuals’ decision-making proactivity”, European Journal of Operational Research, 294 (1) 2021, 264-282 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2021.01.010

    Siebert, Johannes U.; Kunz, Reinhard, Rolf, Philipp. “Effects of Proactive Decision Making on Life Satisfaction”, European Journal of Operational Research, 280(1) 2020, 1171-1187,  doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2019.08.0111

    Siebert, Johannes U.; Kunz, Reinhard. “Developing and Validating the Multidimensional Proactive Decision-Making Scale”. Special Issue „Behavioral Operations Research“ in European Journal of Operational Research, 249(3) 2016, 864-877.dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2015.06.066

  • How to make the better life decisions

    How to make the better life decisions

    Can we learn to make decisions in such a way that they positively influence developments in our private lives or in companies in the long term? Only if the character traits are right, says research.

    “A large proportion of companies make extremely poor decisions because they are unable to identify their objectives,” explains Johannes Siebert of Management Center Innsbruck (MCI). Only if the company’s objectives and values were defined could they be systematically pursued. If this does not happen, clinging to the status quo reigns instead of proactively initiating change. According to Siebert, making the right decisions is also the basis for entrepreneurial success.

    In Die Presse, I explain how people can make decisions and subsequently be more satisfied with their lives. Just follow this link.

    Sources

    Siebert, Johannes U.; Kunz, Reinhard, Rolf, Philipp. “Effects of decision training on individuals’ decision-making proactivity”, European Journal of Operational Research, 294 (1) 2021, 264-282 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2021.01.010

    Siebert, Johannes U.; Kunz, Reinhard, Rolf, Philipp. “Effects of Proactive Decision Making on Life Satisfaction”, European Journal of Operational Research, 280(1) 2020, 1171-1187,  doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2019.08.0111

    Siebert, Johannes U.; Kunz, Reinhard. “Developing and Validating the Multidimensional Proactive Decision-Making Scale”. Special Issue „Behavioral Operations Research“ in European Journal of Operational Research, 249(3) 2016, 864-877.dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2015.06.066

  • Effects of Decision Training On Individuals’ Decision-Making Proactivity

    Effects of Decision Training On Individuals’ Decision-Making Proactivity

    Decision sciences are in general agreement on the theoretical relevance of decision training. From an empirical standpoint, however, only a few studies test its effectiveness or practical usefulness, and even less address the impact of decision training on the structuring of problems systematically. Yet that task is widely considered to be the most crucial in decision-making processes, and current research suggests that effectively structuring problems and generating alternatives—as epitomized by the concept of proactive decision making—increases satisfaction with the decision as well as life satisfaction more generally.

    This paper empirically tests the effect of decision training on two facets of proactive decision making—cognitive skills and personality traits—and on decision satisfaction. In quasi-experimental field studies based on three distinct decision-making courses and two control groups, we analyze longitudinal data on 1,013 decision makers/analysts with different levels of experience. The results reveal positive training effects on proactive cognitive skills and decision satisfaction, but we find no effect on proactive personality traits and mostly non-significant interactions between training and experience. These results imply the practical relevance of decision training as a means to promote effective decision making even by more experienced decision makers.

    The findings presented here may be helpful for operations research scholars who advocate for specific instruction concerning proactive cognitive skills in courses dedicated to decision quality and/or decision theory and also for increasing, in such courses, participants’ proactive decision making and decision satisfaction. Our results should also promote more positive decision outcomes.

    Veröffentlichung Siebert, Johannes U.; Kunz, Reinhard, Rolf, Philipp. “Effects of decision training on individuals’ decision-making proactivity”, European Journal of Operational Research, 294 (1) 2021, 264-282, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2021.01.010

  • Developing and Validating the Multidimensional Proactive Decision-Making Scale

    Developing and Validating the Multidimensional Proactive Decision-Making Scale

    The crucial research questions are how their proactivity in decision situations can characterize individuals, the eventual consequences of proactivity in decision situations, and how the degree of proactivity affects satisfaction with one’s decisions. The scale on Proactive Decision Making (PDM) that has been theoretically developed from literature and empirically validated in cooperation with Prof. Reinhard Kunz (University of Cologne) allows for describing the degree of proactivity of individuals with six dimensions. Two dimensions cover proactive personality traits: ‘striving for improvement’ and ‘showing initiative’. The four dimensions ‘systematical identification of objectives’, ‘systematical identification of information’, ‘systematical identification of alternatives’, and “using a ‘decision radar’ concern proactive cognitive skills and integrate the ideas and concepts of value-focused thinking and decision quality into the PDM-scale.

    This scale provides the basis for analyzing many research questions. For instance, proactive individuals are significantly more satisfied with their decisions, and the scale can explain up to 50% of the variance of decision satisfaction. In another study, the scale was used a priori and ex-post to analyze the impact of an online course on decision-making on the participants. In line with hypotheses derived from literature, the degree of the proactive personality traits remains stable while the degree of the proactive cognitive skills improved through the training significantly. Furthermore, we were able to link proactive cognitive skills to life satisfaction. Scholars who teach courses on decision-making can use these results to claim the relevance and impact of their courses.

    Publications

    Siebert, Johannes; Kunz, Reinhard. “Developing and Validating the Multidimensional Proactive Decision-Making Scale”. Special Issue „Behavioral Operations Research“ in European Journal of Operational Research 249(3) 2016, 864-877, dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2015.06.066

    Siebert, Johannes; Kunz, Reinhard, Rolf, Philipp. “Effects of Proactive Decision Making on Life Satisfaction”, European Journal of Operational Research 280(1), 2020, 1171-1187, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2019.08.011

    Siebert, Johannes U.; Kunz, Reinhard, Rolf, Philipp. “Effects of decision training on individuals’ decision-making proactivity”, European Journal of Operational Research, 294 (1) 2021, 264-282,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2021.01.010

  • Learning to decide wisely and becoming happy: Studies show the effect of training on decision-making behaviour

    Learning to decide wisely and becoming happy: Studies show the effect of training on decision-making behaviour

    Dr. Johannes Siebert, Universität Bayreuth

    Veröffentlichungen

    Johannes Ulrich Siebert, Reinhard E. Kunz, Philipp Rolf. Effects of decision training on individuals’ decision-making proactivity. European Journal of Operational Research (2021), DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2021.01.010

    Johannes Ulrich Siebert, Reinhard E. Kunz, Philipp Rolf: Effects of proactive decision making on life satisfaction. European Journal of Operational Research (2020), 280, 1171-1187. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2019.08.011[JS1] 

    Universität Bayreuth, Pressemitteilung Nr. 020/2021 vom 15.02.2021

    People who make smart decisions in important private and professional matters increase their chances of greater life satisfaction. The cognitive skills required for this can be significantly honed through training. This is the conclusion reached by researchers at the University of Bayreuth in recent empirical studies published in the European Journal of Operational Research. Courses lasting several weeks with participants of different age and occupational groups demonstrably strengthened their ability to make well-considered choices in difficult decision-making situations.

    When cognitive skills that produce proactive, wise decision-making behaviour are too weak, wrong decisions are made, or more precisely, suboptimal courses of action are chosen. Not infrequently, this permanently impairs quality of life and life satisfaction. However, training courses that include both basic knowledge and practical exercises can significantly improve decision-making behaviour – precisely by strengthening cognitive skills. These include, above all, the cognitive skills to approach decision-making situations proactively and with foresight, to gain clarity about one’s own goals, to identify promising options, and to make the best possible choice by weighing them carefully. This is what a research team at the University of Bayreuth has discovered over several years of work. PD Dr. Johannes Siebert, Philipp Rolf, and former Junior Professor Dr. Reinhard Kunz, who now holds a professorship at the University of Cologne, were involved.

    Training, however, cannot change personality traits, which – in addition to cognitive skills – also have a significant influence on decision-making behaviour. “Dispositions that are effective in the long term, such as striving for self-optimization or an attitude toward life that takes initiative, obviously cannot be formed within a few weeks or months as a result of training courses,” explains Siebert, who completed his habilitation in Bayreuth and is currently researching and teaching at the Management Center Innsbruck.

    In a previous study, the Bayreuth researchers were able to demonstrate that smart, proactive decision-making behaviour can significantly promote life satisfaction. The decisive factor here is not only the skill to prudently evaluate and weigh up given options for action, but also the skill to independently discover further options or even create new ones. “Our studies clearly show that the extent to which we are satisfied with our lives by no means depends solely on circumstances outside our control. Proactive decision-making behaviour helps us to open up new and better options for action and thereby strengthens our own quality of life. Because we can specifically train the skills required for this, it is in our own hands whether we develop into satisfied people or not,” says Philipp Rolf, Research Associate at the Production Management & Industrial Management research group at the University of Bayreuth.

    The new findings on strengthening the cognitive characteristics that are important for good decision-making emerged from the scientific monitoring and evaluation of three courses that lasted several weeks. An online course on the quality of decisions was conducted in cooperation with a renowned U.S. university, a lecture on decision theory was held at a technical university in Germany, and courses at the Management Center Innsbruck in Austria focused on the systematic structuring and solving of decision-making situations. The more than 1,000 participants in total belonged to different age and professional groups, and thus represented a broad social spectrum. “All three courses demonstrably strengthened participants’ ability to reach the right decisions through proactive and smart thinking – regardless of their age, gender, or occupation,” says Siebert.

    “KLUG entscheiden!” (deciding smart): A school project in Upper Franconia

    The results of the two studies will also be incorporated into the “KLUG entscheiden!” school project, which was launched three years ago in Upper Franconia and the Upper Palatinate. In workshops, numerous students have already been guided to making well-founded and far-sighted decisions in selecting an apprenticeship or a course of study after leaving school. In addition, teachers have been familiarized with the basics of decision theory and instructed in how to integrate the content developed in the project into their teaching. At the same time, the project addresses the question of how schools can promote such decision-making behaviour. “Initial results show that students can train their decision-making skills and subsequently approach their career choice decisions more confidently. This results in very interesting new starting points for supporting young people,” Siebert sums up. The project is financially supported by the Rainer Markgraf Foundation, the Adalbert-Raps-Foundation, and the Upper Franconia Foundation, and will be continued until the end of 2021 in collaboration with the University of Bayreuth.

    Source: „Learning to decide wisely and becoming happy: Studies show the effect of training on decision-making behaviour“, Media release of the University of Bayreuth 020/2021 (link, link) 15th of February

  • Improving decision making competence of adolescents

    Improving decision making competence of adolescents

    The first decision many young people make is “what do I do after school?” For the most part, different options are presented at best. Often, young people then choose one of the obvious alternatives or alternatives suggested by others without thinking more deeply about what they personally actually want and what their objectives are. For example, you often hear young people say, “My mother is a doctor, so I’m studying medicine,” or “My father is an entrepreneur. I’m studying business,” or even “My parents didn’t study. I should definitely not make the same mistake.” In principle, these decisions may seem “reasonable” from an objective point of view; in individual cases, however, it is urgently necessary to consider each individual’s interests, wishes, and prerequisites.

    Before choosing a field of study, everyone should ask themselves the central question of whether training or studying is a better fit for a young person’s objectives and desires. Today, however, this is often left entirely out of the equation. As a result, and due to poor preliminary considerations when making career decisions, 28 percent of all bachelor’s students dropped out of their studies in 2015, and 25 percent of training contracts were terminated prematurely. In addition to economic consequences such as increased training costs or a shortage of skilled workers, there are also sometimes significant individual consequences, as dropping out of a training program is often seen as a severe failure.

    In a large research project in northern Bavaria, we are investigating how young people can best be trained in decision-making skills so that they are well equipped to make better and more proactive decisions that will have a significant impact on their lives. (www.KLUGentscheiden.de). In addition, I am working closely with the Alliance for Decision Education to promote decision education worldwide.

  • Defining and Aligning Supply Chain Objectives Before, During, and After the COVID-19 Pandemic 3

    Defining and Aligning Supply Chain Objectives Before, During, and After the COVID-19 Pandemic 3

    In order to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic, many companies face numerous strategic decisions of utmost importance for their future. Being aware of one‘s objectives is a prerequisite for sound decision making. However, decision and policymakers are often not aware of their objectives when facing important decisions in “normal” times. In addition, specific objectives have to be identified in times of crisis such as theCOVID-19 pandemic.

    In this article, we provide guidelines for managers that illustrate the following. (i) How to identify company objectives? (ii) How to align them within their supply chains and with governmental objectives of policy makers? (iii) How to adjust objectives during and after theCOVID-19 pandemic? Furthermore, we suggest comprehensive sets of relevant objectives and propose an iterative process to define, align, and adjust objectives.

    The study may help practitioners from business and public administration when making decisions and policies. Researchers may be inspired by the outlined viewpoints on decision-making processes and the addressed perspectives for future research.

    Siebert, Johannes U.; Brandenburg, Markus; Siebert, Jana. “Defining and aligning supply chain objectives before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic”, IEEE Engineering Management Review, 48(4), 2020, 72-85, doi: 10.1109/EMR.2020.3032369