Applying Decision Analysis to Diverse Domains: An Introduction to the Special Issue
Decision analysis (DA) is one of the key tools in operations research (OR). DA is particularly effective at mapping the real world to the model representation to enable the application of formal analysis. DA is a flexible modeling paradigm that has existed since the 1960 s, based on statistical decision theory, elements of utility from economics, probability theory, dynamic programming, and stochastic programming. It aims to identify an optimal course of action for decision problems with uncertainties that affect outcomes and values. Optimal here means expected-utility maximizing, which decision theory shows to be equivalent to following axioms of rationality given a set of beliefs. DA articles have appeared with some regularity in Interfaces (the predecessor to INFORMS Journal on Applied Analytics (IJAA)), with early applications focusing on policy and later ones on research and development in consumer products, pharmaceuticals, and oil and gas, quite naturally because these applications have distinct…
About a literally life-changing decision: children, yes or no?
The decision to what extent one wants to have children has significant consequences for the individual, the couple, and the family. That’s why it’s a decision that needs to be thought about carefully. In the Sunday edition of Die Presse, I give some advice for this particular decision. You can find Ms. Gabriel’s article, which is well worth reading, here.
Reducing the impact of misinformation and fake news
New methods to effectively reduce the negative impact of misinformation and fake news on people’s opinions An investigation into Team Jorge’s activites has shown the sinister influence of misinformation and fake news on politics, society and the economy. Misinformation and fake news became a global phenomenon with the 2016 U.S. presidential election and the Brexit referendum, particularly because more and more people are using social media as a source of news without reflection. The use of artificial intelligence (e.g. chat GPT) in the generation and dissemination of misinformation and fake news will strengthen their influence in the future.The spread of misinformation and fake news on the internet and its consequences are being intensively discussed in the European Parliament. Nevertheless, so far, there is no clear agreement on how to reduce the influence of misinformation and fake news. “The problem with misinformation and fake news is that even if it is…
How to finish a bachelor or master thesis successfully
Many students struggle to finish their thesis. In this weekend’s edition of the Standard, I share some tips on how you can outsmart yourself to finally finish your thesis or dissertation. However, the tips are applicable to almost any task you might be putting off. You can find Ms. Ostermann’s article, which is well worth reading, here. The basic idea of the extension of classical nudging is to be your own decision architect. I explain the background in this #TEDxTalk: https://www.ted.com/talks/johannes_siebert_nudge_yourself_to_make_better_decisions If you’re even more interested in the topic, you’ll find enough exciting material for the football-less, rainy pre-Christmas season in this free MOOC Smart Decisions (https://imoox.at/course/smartentscheiden) In the weekend edition of the Standard, I give decision-theoretically sound tips on how to finally finish your final paper
Making a good career choice: A decision-analytical intervention to enhance proactive decision-making and career choice self-efficacy in high school students
At the end of high school, teenagers must deal with the first life-changing decision of determining what to do after graduation. For these decisions, adolescents need to be able to make good choices. However, most schools have not yet implemented decision training into their curricula. A new intervention called “KLUGentscheiden!” was developed to train complex decision-making in high school students to close this gap. The intervention targets three critical components of good decision-making: envisioning one’s objectives, identifying relevant alternatives, and comparing the identified alternatives by a weighted evaluation. We assumed that successfully training those decision-analytical steps should enhance self-perceived proactive decision-making skills. In addition, the training should also enhance self-assessed career choice self-efficacy. The intervention was evaluated in a pseudorandomized control study, including 193 high school students. The intervention group significantly increased proactive decision-making skills and career choice self-efficacy compared to the control group. Although different long-term evaluations are still…
“Smart decisions make you really happy”: MCI MOOC top-rated course on iMooX
Smart decisions make people really happy! Within the first nine months, 650 satisfied participants have already learned how to actively make them in our MCI MOOC “Smart Decisions” by Prof. Johannes Siebert. The MOOC is the best-rated course among over 100 courses on the iMooX platform and has a rating of 4.98 out of 5.00 stars. The core of the free MOOC consists of 8 interactive videos with a total length of just over 2.5 hours. In addition, more in-depth teaching materials, reflection exercises and quizzes are provided. Participants are also encouraged to work on their own running example(s). Prof. Siebert explains why many people make bad decisions and how they can avoid that. He presents some simple but effective methods based on recent developments in behavioral economics and decision sciences. The participants learn to make reflective and conscious decisions. Therefore, Prof. Siebert enables the participants to become their own…
How do I get clear about whether I want kids?
The ideal of a large family with children still exists. But many people today are unsure whether they really want that. They may be in their 20s or 30s, their friends are having babies, and they imagine what it will be like. They observe beaming but stressed parents. And they themselves haven’t made up their minds yet – because they’re actually quite happy with the way their lives are right now. At the same time, there’s the fear of missing out. How do you find out what’s right? Lisa Breit spoke with experts from various disciplines about this question: Johannes Siebert is a decision researcher, Melanie Hausler is a psychologist and happiness researcher, and Johannes Frass is a life coach and budding psychotherapist in Vienna. They explain how to make the decision and whether children really do make you happier. You can find the article in the Standard here: https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000137561015/wie-werde-ich-mir-klar-ob-ich-kinder-will
Supporting Innovation in Early-Stage Pharmaceutical Development Decisions
Pharmaceutical companies have frequent portfolio reviews to monitor development progress and prioritize development assets. The earliest assets are drug candidates whose efficacy is unknown and whose effects on the human body have yet to be fully investigated. These assets are characterized by a high degree of uncertainty in reaching the market and in being used in clinical practice. In addition, not all potential applications are foreseen and can often be very different. In the absence of satisfactory methods for making decisions on resource allocation among early development assets, decision makers focus almost exclusively on assessments of an asset’s probability of technical success. This study proposes a more holistic methodology to support early-stage pharmaceutical development decisions using value-focused thinking and multicriteria decision making. The methodology operates within the decision quality framework and provides a consistent evaluation of various early development assets across a diverse set of disease areas. This combination of…
The research project PerFake explores methods to reduce the influence of fake news on individuals
Fake news became a global phenomenon with the 2016 U.S. presidential election and the Brexit referendum, particularly because more and more people are using social media as a source of news without reflection. The spread of fake news on the Internet and its consequences are being intensively discussed in the European Parliament. Nevertheless, so far, there is no clear agreement on how to reduce the influence of fake news. „The problem with fake news is that even if it is flawlessly identified as such, something still „sticks“ – the fake news continues to influence our opinion”, explains Prof. Johannes Siebert, who researches and teaches at MCI | The Entrepreneurial School®. This phenomenon is called „belief perseverance bias“ and explains the great influence of fake news on the formation of opinion and the decision-making behavior of many people. „There are numerous newsrooms and nonprofit organizations that identify fake news. This very…
Fact checks can only be a first step
Fake news: a globalphenomenon with a negative impact on opinions. Professor Johannes Siebert from MCI and Dr. Jana Siebert from Palacky University Olomouc are fighting against this with their project “PerFake”. “Misinformation has always been a part of our society,” says Johannes Siebert. With the Brexit referendum and the 2016 U.S. presidential election, fake news – “misinformation deliberately spread to manipulate opinions,” the professor says – has become a global phenomenon. Ubiquitous. The spread of false facts has been aided in recent years by digital social networks, he said. In particular, by the fact that more and more people living in their Facebook bubble unthinkingly refer to it as a source for news. You can find the full interview here: https://www.unipress.at/wissenschaft/faktenchecks-koennen-nur-ein-erster-schritt-sein/