The job selection problem for career starters: a decision-theoretical application part 1: structuring the problem into objectives, alternatives, and uncertainties
This two-piece paper describes how to solve a practical decision problem using decision theory. The first part emphasizes the high importance of a solid structuring of the decision situation in objectives, alternatives, and uncertainties. It is shown how to proceed in this step with the support of a decision analyst. The following second part uses the results of the first part and shows how to find an optimal alternative by a quantification of the necessary parameter. Short text: After graduation, the question arises for the graduates with which job they want to start their further career. A decision-theoretical analysis uses a practical example to show how the decision problem can be well-structured with the help of a decision analyst.
Many individuals and organizations face and address decision situations as problems, which are to be solved. However, decisions are the only way to influence actively what is important. This paper differentiates decision problems and decision opportunities and illustrates how proactive, value-focused decision making can create attractive decision opportunities and help reduce the chance of some unwanted decision problems.
Die Entwicklung einer Balanced Scorecard mit Value-Focused Thinking am Beispiel eines Medienunternehmens
This paper describes an innovative procedure to develop a sophisticated Balanced Scorecard using tools and methods of Value-focused Thinking. This procedure is illustrated for a medium-sized media company.
The quality of alternatives is crucial for making good decisions. This research, based on five empirical studies of important personally relevant decisions, examines the ability of decision makers to create alternatives for their important decisions and the effectiveness of different stimuli for improving this ability. For decisions for which the full set of potentially desirable alternatives is not readily apparent, our first study indicates that decision makers identify less than half of their alternatives and that the average quality of the overlooked alternatives is the same as those identified.
Decision sciences are in general agreement on the theoretical relevance of decision training. From an empirical standpoint, however, only a few studies test its effectiveness or practical usefulness, and even less address the impact of decision training on the structuring of problems systematically. Yet that task is widely considered to be the most crucial in decision-making processes, and current research suggests that effectively structuring problems and generating alternatives—as epitomized by the concept of proactive decision making—increases satisfaction with the decision as well as life satisfaction more generally.
Proactive decision making, a concept recently introduced to behavioural operational research and decision analysis, addresses effective decision making during its phase of generating alternatives. It is measured on a scale comprising six dimensions grouped into two categories: proactive personality traits and proactive cognitive skills. Personality traits are grounded on such theoretical constructs as a proactive attitude and proactive behaviour; cognitive skills reflect value-focused thinking and decision quality. These traits and skills have been used to explain decision satisfaction, although their antecedents and other consequences have not yet been the subject of rigorous hypotheses and testing. This paper embeds proactive decision making within a model of three possible consequences. We consider—and empirically test—decision satisfaction, general self-efficacy, and life satisfaction by conducting three studies with 1,300 participants.
On the basis of an extensive interdisciplinary literature review proactive decision-making (PDM) is conceptualised as a multidimensional concept. We conduct five studies with over 4,000 participants from various countries for developing and validating a theoretically consistent and psychometrically sound scale of PDM. The PDM concept is developed and appropriate items are derived from literature. Six dimensions are conceptualised: the four roactive cognitive skills ‘systematic identification of objectives’, ‘systematic search for information’, ‘systematic identification of alternatives’, and ‘using a ‘decision radar’’, and the two proactive personality traits ‘showing nitiative’ and ‘striving for improvement’.
This paper discusses the economic potentials of Industry 4.0, its interaction with Big Data, and provides implications for companies in general and for management control in particular.
The quality of alternatives is crucial for making good decisions. The process of generating high-quality alternatives can be enhanced by using decision makers’ objectives as prompts. This paper examines empirically the impact and interrelation of experience and the prompting with objectives on decision makers’ ability to create alternatives for an important decision. The study confirms with high significance that both experience and prompting with objectives enhance the quality of alternatives.
Identifying and Structuring the Objectives of the Islamic State of Iraq and The Levant (Isil) and its Followers
This study addressed three questions: 1. What are the objectives of the leaders of ISIL? 2. What are the objectives of the followers of ISIL? 3. How are the two sets of objectives related? To answer these questions we analyzed the transcripts of interviews and presentations of 59 subject matter experts (SMEs) and conducted a separate analysis of speeches of ISIL leaders and selected Internet sources. In both efforts we identified and structured the strategic, fundamental, and means objectives of ISIL and its followers.